 [5 min read, open as pdf]
Even before the Russia/Ukraine war and sanctions, Covid policy stimulus, rapidity of the post-Covid restart, supply-chain disruptions and the energy crisis have stoked up inflationary pressure and we are in for a bumpy ride. While we are not yet past the peak, it takes years, not months, to tame inflation, so it makes sense to adapt portfolios for an inflationary regime. To understand asset class behaviour there is not much use looking at the last 10 or 20 years. That era has been characterised by falling interest rates and low inflation. Instead we have to go back to the history books and understand how asset classes behaved in the 1970s inflation shock and the subsequent period of rising interest rates and rising inflation. From studying academic research on that era, we draw three key conclusions: firstly, inflation protection can be achieved by owning the assets that benefit, rather than suffer, from inflation. Secondly, that different asset classes have different inflation-protective qualities over time. Finally, that liquidity is key so that there is flexibility to alter and adjust your portfolio. Equities: the long-term inflation hedge Equities provide the ultimate “long-term” inflation hedge – companies that make things that you always need and have pricing power can keep pace with or beat inflation. Within equities, studies show that a bias towards value, away from growth, outperforms during an inflationary regime. This is because of something known as “equity duration”, which basically means that companies that deliver earnings and dividends on a “jam today” basis, are more valuable than companies that are expected to deliver earnings and dividends in the very distant future on a “jam tomorrow” basis. You can access a Value ETF very simply by using factor-based ETFs, such as IWFV (iShares Edge MSCI World Value Factor UCITS ETF). But given that investors are likely to have equities in their portfolios already and therefore have long-term protection in place, how do you achieve inflation-protection for the bumpy ride over the short- and medium-term? Owning the problem Inflation-hedging can be described as “owning the problem”. Worried about rising oil, gas and petrol prices? Own an Energy ETP like AIGE (WisdomTree Energy ETP). Worried about rising wheat prices? Own an Agriculture ETP like AIGA (WisdomTree Agriculture ETP). Worried about rising rail-fares? Own an infrastructure ETF like GIN (SPDR Morningstar Multi-Asset Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF). Worried about rising rents? Own a property ETF like IWDP (iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITS ETF). Worried about rising household bills? Own a Utilities ETF like UTIW (Lyxor MSCI World Utilities TR UCITS ETF). By owning the assets that benefit, rather than suffer, from inflation, you can incorporate inflation-protection into your portfolio. These assets are referred to as “liquid real assets” as their value is positively related to inflation. They can be accessed in liquid format by using exchange traded products (ETPs) keeping your portfolio flexible to enable future adjustments as time goes on. Interestingly, real assets respond to inflation in different ways over different time frames. The study from the 1970s looked at the correlation of asset classes over time from the start of an inflation shock. It found that Commodities provided near-term inflation protection for the initial five or so years of inflation shock, but then moderated as supply-side solutions came-through. Infrastructure and Property provided medium- to long-term inflation protection but were vulnerable in the near-term to rising market risk associated with the break-out of inflation. Inflation-linked bonds – as the name suggests – provide inflation protection, if held to maturity. But in the short-term they can decline materially, as they are highly sensitive to increases in interest rates which are typically associated with inflation-fighting central bank policy. So while inflation-linked bonds like INXG (iShares GBP Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF) reduce inflation risk, they increase interest rate risk. By introducing some interest-rate hedging by owning assets whose interest rates go up when the Fed raises rates, like with FLOS (iShares USD Floating Rate Bond UCITS ETF GBP Hedged), this can be mitigated. Gold Gold is also a traditional real asset inflation-hedge: it preserves its value (purchasing power) over millennia, and is a classic “risk off” asset that can help protect a portfolio in times of market stress. Some critics of holding physical gold argue that is produces no income and therefore has no intrinsic value or growth. That may be so, but imagine you were a time-traveller – it’s the only money that you could use in any era going back to biblical times. It holds its value in inflationary and even in hyperinflationary times. From a portfolio perspective, it always makes sense to have some exposure both as a real asset, a shock-absorber and as an uncorrelated diversifier. Physical gold tends to outperform gold miners, in the long-run, and can be accessed at lower cost. There are plenty of low-cost physical gold ETPs to choose from. Bringing it all together We believe that a layered approach to inflation-hedging makes sense because of the different inflation-protection qualities of different asset classes over time. Within equities this means pivoting equity exposure towards a Value/Income bias. Within bonds, this means reducing duration and/or substituting nominal bonds with liquid real assets exposure as a potential alternative (subject to relevant risk controls). We have incorporated a range of higher risk inflation-protective asset classes, such as commodities, gold, infrastructure and property, medium-risk like lower duration inflation-linked bonds and lower risk rate-sensitive assets, such as floating rate notes to create a diversified Liquid Real Assets Index strategy that aims to deliver exposure to inflation-protective asset classes, while delivering an overall portfolio volatility similar to Gilts. This makes the strategy a potential alternative to traditional (nominal) bonds exposure that will continue to struggle in an inflationary regime. Summary For those wishing to isolate and target specific inflation-protective exposures, there is no shortage of choice for highly targeted inflation-hedging strategies. Adapting portfolios for inflation is key to ensure resilience in an inflationary regime. And while it may feel a bit late to get started, it’s better late than never. Find out more about our All-Weather Portfolio of ETFs for UK investors. Find out more about our Permanent Portfolio of ETFs for UK investors. See all our Research Portfolios
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 [3 min read, open as pdf]
2021 in review Our 2021 market roundup summarises another strong year for markets in almost all asset classes except for Bonds which remain under pressure as interest rates are expected to rise and inflation ticks up. Listed private equity (shares in private equity managers) performed best at +43.08%yy in GBP terms. US was the best performing region at +30.06%. Real asset exposures, such as Water, Commodities and Timber continued to rally in face of rising inflation risk, returning +32.81%, +28.22% and +17.66% respectively. 2022 outlook We are continuing in this “curiouser, through-the-looking glass” world. Traditionally you bought bonds for income, and equity for risk. Now it’s the other way round. Only equities provide income yields that have the potential to keep ahead of inflation. Bonds carry increasing risk of loss in real terms as inflation and interest rates rise. Real yields, which are bond yields less the inflation rate, are negative making traditional Bonds which aren’t linked to inflation highly unattractive. Bonds that are linked to inflation are highly sensitive to rising interest rates (called duration risk), so are not attractive either. How to navigate markets in this context? The big three themes for the year ahead are, in our view:
See full report in pdf Attend our 2022 Outlook webinar  [5 min read, open as pdf]
Interest rates expected to rise As the run up in inflation looks more persistent, than transitory, there is growing likelihood that Central Banks will raise interest rates in response. Following an extended “lower for longer” near-Zero Interest Rate Policy following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID Crisis, the market futures-implied expectations for the Fed Funds rate, points to a “take off” in 2022 in response to rising inflation, following COVID-related policy support, to an expected 1.01% interest rate level in Dec-23[1], from 0.88% last quarter. Fig.1. Fed Funds Rate and implied expectations  Source: Elston research, Bloomberg data
The potential for increased interest rate volatility, as rate hike expectations increase, means that investors that are seeking to dampen interest rate sensitivity (“duration”) are allocating to shorter-duration exposures, such as ultrashort-duration bonds, and also to Floating Rate Notes (FRNs). What is a Floating Rate Note? Floating Rate Notes receive interest payments that are directly linked to changes in near-term interest rates and can therefore provide a degree of protection against interest rate risk, when interest rates are rising. Issued for the most part by corporations, FRNs pay a periodic coupon – typically quarterly – that resets periodically in line with short-term interest rates. This could be expressed as a premium or “spread” over a currency’s short-term risk-free rate, such as (in the UK) the 3 month SONIA rate (Sterling Overnight Index Average, and prior to that GBP LIBOR) in the UK, or (in the US) the 3 month SOFR (Secured Overnight Funding Rate, and prior to that USD LIBOR). These indices overnight borrowing rates between financial institutions. The size of the premium or spread reflects the creditworthiness of the issuer: the higher the spread, the greater the rewarded risk for owning that security, and typically stays the same for the life of the bond and is based on the issuer’s credit risk as deemed by the market. How can FRNs benefit investors? Floating Rate Notes are a lower-risk way of putting cash to work and provide a useful direct hedge against interest rate fluctuations. When incorporated into a bond portfolio, they can help bring down duration given their reduced sensitivity to interest rate changes, as well as provide a return pattern that is directly and positively correlated with changes in interest rates. Compared to nominal bonds, such as Corporate Bonds and UK Gilts, FRNs’ yield can increase as/when interest rates increase. Relative to money market funds, FRNs may provide some additional yield pick-up, as well as very short <1 year duration. Key considerations when investing in FRNs Portfolio investors can access FRNs through funds and ETFs. Key considerations when investing in FRNs include, but are not limited to:
Summary The expected timing of interest rate “lift off” in the US and UK will change as markets adapt to evolving growth and inflation outlook during the post-COVID recovery, and in response to the risk of further disruption from new virus variants. However, as interest rate rises become more likely, and incorporating an allocation to Floating Rate Notes for protection against interest rate risk makes sense within the bond allocation. Watch the CPD Webinar: The Quest for Yield [1] Data as at last quarter end  [Open full article as pdf]
“Suppose we define a passive investor as anyone whose portfolio of U.S. equities is the cap-weight market portfolio described above. Likewise, define an active investor as anyone whose portfolio of U.S. equities is the not the cap-weight market portfolio. It is nevertheless true that the aggregate portfolio of active investors (with each investor's portfolio weighted by that investor's share of the total value of the U.S. equities held by active investors) has to be the market portfolio. Since the aggregate portfolio of all investors (active plus passive) is the market portfolio and the aggregate for all passive investors is the market portfolio, the aggregate for all active investors must be the market portfolio. All this is obvious. It is just the arithmetic of the fact that all U.S. equities are always held by investors. Its implications, however, are often overlooked.” What Bill Sharpe was saying to us was this: the performance of all active managers is, in aggregate [for a given asset class] that of the index less active fees. Which is a considerably worse deal than the charge often levelled against passive funds, namely that investors are paying for the performance of the index less passive fees. CPD Webinar: Is active management a zero-sum game?  Money market funds, and their exchange-traded equivalents “ultra-short duration bond funds”[1], are an important, if unglamorous, tool in portfolio manager’s toolkit. They can be used in place of a cash holding for additional yield, without compromising on risk, liquidity or cost. Money market funds are intended to preserve capital and provide returns similar to those available on the wholesale money markets (e.g. the SONIA rate that replace LIBOR). How risky is a money market fund? Money market-type funds hold near-to maturity investment grade paper. Their weighted average term to maturity is <1 year. They therefore have very low effective duration (the sensitivity to changes in interest rates). Compare gilts which are seen as a low-risk asset relative to equities. The 10-11 year duration on UK gilts (all maturities) means they carry a higher level volatility compared to cash (which has nil volatility). On the flip side, their longer term also means they have higher risk-return potential relative to cash and ultra-short bonds. By contrast, money market type funds have some investment risk as they hold non-cash assets, but given their holdings’ investment grade status, short term to maturity and ultra-short effective duration, they exhibit near-nil volatility. Platform cash, fixed term deposit or money market fund From a flexibility perspective and a value for money perspective, there's a clear rationale to hold money market funds, rather than platform cash or a fixed term deposit. Our Money Markets fund research paper that looks at 4 low cost money market funds sets out why Why does the fund structure make sense? Find out more in our CPD Webinar on Introduction to Collective Investment Schemes 
Last week, the US Senate passed a $1.2trillion infrastructure bill that now awaits a House vote as part of the "build back better" campaign, and another part of the "bazooka" post-COVID policy stimulus. Whilst there are plenty of infrastructure equity funds like INFR (iShares Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF) and WUTI (SPDR® MSCI World Utilities UCITS ETF) that benefit from infrastructure spend, for those not wanting to uprisk portfolio, we like GIN (SPDR® Morningstar Multi-Asset Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF) which invests in infrastructure equity and debt securities. Infrastructure & Utilities forms a core part of our Liquid Real Assets Index, for the inflation-protective qualities (tariff formulae typically pass through inflation). The "hybrid" nature of infrastructure - with both equity and bond like components is why we place it firmly in the Alternative Assets category. Helpfully this can be accessed in a highly iquid and (relatively) low-cost format, compared to higher cost, less transparent and potentially less liquid infrastructure funds. 
[3 min read, open as pdf]  Traditional indices weight companies based on their size. The resulting concentration risk and “the big get bigger” theory is a criticism levelled by many active managers who are critical of index investing.
Leaving aside the flaw in that argument (company's valuations determine their size in an index, not the other way round), it is important to remember that using traditional indices is a choice, not an obligation. One alternative weighting scheme is to weight each share within an index equally, regardless of the size of the company. Sounds simple? In a way, it is. But what’s interesting is understanding what an equal weight approach means from a diversification perspective, risk perspective and underlying factor-bias. The curious power of equal weight is why some equal weight strategies have seen significant inflows over the last 6-12 months. Register for our CPD event exploring this topic in more detail on Wed 23 June at 10.30am  [5 min read, open as pdf]
Commodity indices, and the ETPs that track them provide a convenient way of accessing a broad commodity basket exposure with a single trade. What’s inside the basket? Commodity indices represent baskets of commodities constructed using futures prices. The Bloomberg Commodity Index which was launched in 1998 as the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index has a weighting scheme is based on target weights for each commodity exposure. These weights are subject to the index methodology rules that incorporate both liquidity (relative amount of trading activity of a particular commodity) and production data (actual production data in USD terms of a particular commodity) to reflect economic significance. The index subdivides commodities into “Groups”, such as: Energy (WTI Crude Oil, Natural Gas etc), Grains (Corn, Soybeans etc), Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminium etc), Precious Metals (Gold, Silver), Softs (Sugar, Coffee, Cotton) and Livestock (Live Cattle, Lean Hogs). The index rules include diversification requirements such that no commodity group constitutes more than 33% weight in the index; no single commodity (together with its derivatives) may constitute over 25% weight); and no single commodity may constitute over 15% weight. The target weights for 2021 at Group and Commodity level is presented below:  Owing to changes in production and or liquidity, annual target weights can vary. For example the material change in weight in the 2021 target weights vs the 2020 target weights was a +1.6ppt increase in Precious Metals (to 19.0%) and a -1.9pp decrease in Industrial Metals to 15.6%. Traditional vs “Smart” weighting schemes One of the drawbacks of the traditional production- and liquidity-based weighting scheme is that they are constructed with short-dated futures contracts. This creates a risk when futures contracts are rolled because for commodities where the forward curve is upward sloping (“contango”), the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price. Each time a futures contract is rolled, investors are forced to “buy high and sell low”. This is known as “negative roll yield”. A “smart” weighting scheme looks at the commodity basket from a constant maturity perspective, rather than focusing solely on short-dated futures contracts. This approach aims to mitigate the impact of negative roll yield as well as potential for reduced volatility, relative to traditional indices. This Constant Maturity Commodity Index methodology was pioneered by UBS in 2007 and underpins the UBS Bloomberg BCOM Constant Maturity Commodity Index and products that track it. Illustration of futures rolling for markets in contango  An Equal Weighted approach Whilst the traditional index construction considers economic significance in terms of production and liquidity, investors may seek alternative forms of diversified commodities exposure, such as Equal Weighted approach. There are two ways of achieving this, equal weighting each commodity, or equal weighting each commodity group. The Refinitiv Equal Weight Commodity Index equally weights each if 17 individual commodity components, such that each commodity has a 5.88% (1/17th) weight in the index. This results in an 18% allocation to the Energy Group, 47% allocation to the Agriculture group, 12% allocation to the Livestock group and 23% allocation to Precious & Industrial Metals. An alternative approach is to equally weight each commodity group. This is the approach we take in the Elston Equal Weight Commodity Portfolio, which has a 25% allocation to Energy, a 25% allocation to Precious Metals, a 25% Allocation to Industrial Metals and a 25% Allocation to Agricultural commodities. This is on the basis that commodities components within each group will behave more similarly than commodity components across groups. These two contrasting approaches are summarised below:  Performance In 2020, the Equal Weight component strategy performed best +6.28%. The Constant Maturity strategy delivered +0.69%. The Equal Weight Group strategy was flat at -0.05% and the traditional index was -5.88%, all expressed in GBP terms.  Informed product selection This summarises four different ways of accessing a diversified commodity exposure: traditional weight, constant maturity weighting, equal component weighting and equal group weighting. Understanding the respective strengths and weaknesses of each approach is an important factor for product selection.  [3 min read, open as pdf]
A “last resort” policy tool Zero & Negative Interest Rate Policy are Non-Traditional forms of Monetary Policy is a way of Central banks creating a disincentive for banks to hoard capital and get money flowing. Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) is when Central Banks set their “policy rate” (a target short-term interest rate such as the Fed Funds rate of the Bank of England Base Rate) at, or close to, zero. ZIRP was initiated by Japan in 1999 to combat deflation and stimulate economic recovery after two decades of weak economic growth. Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) is when Central Banks set their policy rate below zero. Japan, Euro Area, Denmark, Sweden are currently using a NIRP. US & UK are currently using a ZIRP, and are considering a NIRP. Fig.1. Advanced economy policy rates  Whilst bond prices may imply negative real yield, or negative nominal yields, a NIRP impacts the rates at which the Central Bank interact with the wholesale banking system and is intended to stimulate economic activity by disincentivising banks to hold cash and get money moving. A NIRP could translate to negative wholesale rates between banks, and negative interest rates on large cash deposits, but not necessarily retail lending rates (e.g. mortgages).
Ready, steady, NIRP Negative Interest Rates were used in the 1970s by Switzerland as an intervention to dampen currency appreciation. . It was the subject of academic studies and was seen as a last resort Non-Traditional Monetary policy during the Financial Crisis of 2008 and during the COVID crisis of 2020. Sweden adopted NIRP in 2009, Denmark in 2012, and Japan & Eurozone in 2014. The Fed started looking closely at NIRP in 2016. According Bank of England MPC minutes of 3rd March 2021, wholesale markets are generally prepared for negative interest rates as have already been operating in a negative yield environment. By contrast, retail banks may need more time to prepare for negative interest rates to consider aspect such as variable mortgage rates. There are arguments for and against NIRP. The main argument for is that NIRP is stimulatory. The main argument against is that NIRP failed to address stagnation and deflation in Japan and can create a “liquidity trap” where corporates hoard capital rather than spend and invest. The hunt for yield With negative interest rates, there will be an even greater hunt for yield. We look at the some of the options that advisers might be invited to consider.
Getting the balance right between additional non-negative income yield and additional downside risk will be key for investors and their advisers when preparing for and reacting to a NIRP environment.  [3 min read, open as pdf]
Focus on inflation In our recent Focus on Inflation webinar we cited the study by Briere & Signori (2011) looking at the long run correlations between asset returns and inflation over time. We highlighted the “layered” effect of different inflation protection strategies (1973-1990) with cash (assuming interest rate rises), and commodities providing best near-term protection, inflation linked bonds and real estate providing medium-term protection, and equities providing long-term protections. Nominal bonds were impacted most negatively by inflation.  Source: Briere & Signori (2011), BIS Research Papers Given the growing fears of inflation breaking out, we plotted the YTD returns of those “inflation-hedge” asset classes, in GBP terms for UK investors, with reference to the US and UK 5 Year Breakeven Inflation Rates (BEIR). Figure 2: Inflation-hedge asset class performance (GBP, YTD) vs US & UK 5Y BEIR  Source: Elston research, Bloomberg data, as at 5th March 2021
Winners and Losers so far We looked at the YTD performance in GBP of the following broad “inflation hedge” asset classes, each represented by a selected ETF: Gilts, Inflation Linked Gilts, Commodities, Gold, Industrial Metals, Global Property, Multi-Asset Infrastructure and Equity Income. Looking at price performance year to date in GBP terms:
So Inflation-Linked Gilts don’t provide inflation protection? Not in the short run, no. UK inflation linked gilts have an effective duration of 22 years, so are highly interest rate sensitive. Fears that inflation pick up could lead to a rise in interest rates therefore reduces the capital value of those bond (offset by greater level of income payments, if held to maturity). So whilst they provide medium- to long-term inflation protection, they are poor protection against a near-term inflation shock. Conclusion In conclusion, we observe:
 [5 min read, open as pdf]
Tech performance is skewing cap-weighted indices The run up in technology stocks and the inclusion of Tesla into the S&P500 has increased both sector concentration and security concentration. The Top 10 has typically represented approximately 20% of the index, it now represents 27.4%. The chart below shows the Top 10 holdings weight over time.   Rather than looking just at Risk vs Return, we also look at Beta vs Correlation to see to what extent each strategy has 1) not only reduced Beta relative to the market, but also 2) reduced Correlation (an indication of true diversification). Strategies with lower Correlation have greater diversification effect from a portfolio construction perspective. Ironically, the last time the index was anything close to being this concentrated was back in 1980 when IBM, AT&T and the big oil majors ruled the roost. From a sector perspective, as at end December 2020, Information Technology now makes up 27.6% of the index. Increased concentration reduces diversification This level of concentration is indeed skewing indices that rely on a traditional market capitalisation-weighted (cap-weighted) methodology, and does therefore reduce diversification. But the issue of the best performing stocks getting a larger weighting in the index, is not an accident of traditional index design. It’s its very core. Cap-weighted indices reflect the value placed on securities by investors, not the other way round. We should not therefore conflate the debate around “active vs passive” investment approaches, with the debate around index methodology. If portfolio managers are concerned about over-exposure to particular company or sector within a cap-weighted index, they can either chose an active, non-index fund, that is not a closet-tracker. Or they can access the target asset class through an alternatively weighted index, which uses a security weighting scheme other than market capitalisation. Using cap-weighted indices is an active choice The decision to use a fund that tracks an cap-weighted index is an active choice. And for those seeking differentiated exposure, there is a vast range of options available. We categorise these into 3 sub-groups: Style, Factor-based and Risk-based.
How have US equity risk-based strategies fared? Risk-based strategies have been in existence for some time, so we are able now to consider 10 year data (to December 2020, in USD terms). In terms of risk-adjusted performance, Managed Risk index strategies have fared best, whilst Min Variance has delivered higher returns for similar levels of risk of a Max Diversification strategy. Meanwhile Equal Weight has actually exhibited greater risk than traditional cap-weighted approach.  In this respect, Equal Weight (Max Deconcentration), also disappoints delivering higher beta and >95% correlation. Likewise Min Variance, whilst delivering on Beta reduction, does not deliver on decorrelation. Max Diversification delivers somewhat on decorrelating the strategy from the S&P500, but only modestly, whilst Managed Risk achieves similar decorrelation, reduced beta and better returns. Finally Risk Parity 10% Volatility cap has delivered most decorrelation as well as beta reduction.
For more information about the indices and funds used to represent these different strategies, please contact us. Summary There are a broad range of alternatives to cap-weighted index exposures. But consideration of style-, factor- or risk-based objectives will necessarily inform portfolio construction.
Find out more For more insights and information on research, portfolios and indices, visit: www.elstonsolutions.co.uk or NH ETF<Go>  Compared to traditional retail funds, ETFs offer transparency, liquidity and efficiency [7 min read, Open as pdf] In this series of articles, I look at some of the key topics explored in my book “How to Invest With Exchange Traded Funds” that also underpin the portfolio design work Elston does for discretionary managers and financial advisers. Indexes: the DNA of an ETF An Exchange Traded Fund is an index-tracking investment fund that aims to track (perform exactly in line) with the benchmark index in the fund’s name. The index defines an ETF’s “DNA”. An index is a collective measure of value for a defined group of securities, where criteria for inclusion and weighting within that group are defined by a systematic set of rules. Indices can represent a basket of equities like the FTSE 100 Index (the “Footsie”) or a basket of bonds like the FTSE Actuaries UK Conventional Gilts All Stocks Index (the “gilts” index). Indices can be used as benchmarks to represent the performance of an asset class or exposure. ETFs aim to track these benchmark indices by holding the same securities in the same weights as the index. Whilst ETFs can be an equity fund or bond fund (amongst others) with respect to its underlying holdings and the index it tracks, the shares in those ETFs trade on an exchange like an equity. This means ETFs combine the diversification advantages of a collective investment scheme, with the accessibility advantages of a share, all at a management fee that is substantially lower than traditional active funds. These features make ETFs easy to buy, easy to switch and easy to own, revolutionising the investment process as well as reducing investment costs. Indices enable transparency ETFs are regulated collective investment schemes (often UCITS[1] schemes) that can be traded on a recognised exchange, such as the London Stock Exchange. Whereas the manager of a traditional active fund aims to outperform an index such as the FTSE 100 by overweighting or underweighting particular securities within that index or holding non-index securities, an ETF aims to deliver the same returns as the index by holding within the fund the same securities as the index in the same proportion as the index. If the index represents a basket of securities weighted by their respective size, it is a “Capitalisation-weighted index”: this is the traditional index approach. If the index represents a basket of securities weighted by a criteria other than their respective size, it is an “Alternatively-weighted” index. For example, an equal weighted index means all the securities in an index are given an equal weight. [1] UCITS: Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (the European regulatory framework for retail investment funds)  ETFs track indices, and indices have rules. Index rules are publicly available and set out how an index selects and weights securities and how frequently that process is refreshed. Indices therefore represent a range of investment ideas and strategies, but codified using a rules-based approach. This makes ETFs’ investment approach transparent, systematic and predictable, even if the performance of securities within the index is not. Furthermore, ETFs publish their full holdings every day so investors can be sure of what they own. This makes ETFs’ investment risks transparent. The investment risk-return profile of an ETF is directly link to the risk-return profile of the index that it tracks. Hence ETFs tracking emerging market equity indices are more volatile than those tracking developed market indices, which in turn are more volatile than those tracking shorter-duration bond indices. As with direct shares, traditional active mutual funds and index-tracking funds, when investing in ETFs, capital is at risk, hence the value of investments will vary and the initial investment amount is not guaranteed. ETFs vs traditional funds An ETF is different to other types of investment fund in the following ways:
The primary advantage of ETFs is the additional liquidity that a “secondary market” creates in the shares of that ETF (meaning the ability for investors to buy or sell existing shares of that ETF amongst themselves via a recognised exchange). However it is important to note that ultimately the liquidity of any ETF is only as good as its underlying assets. Traditional mutual funds can be traded once a day and investors transact with the fund issuer who must buy or sell the same amount of underlying securities. Fund issuers have the right to “gate” funds and refuse to process redemptions to protect the interests of the broader unitholders of the fund. If this happens, there is no secondary market for shares/units in the fund. Recent examples of “gating” include UK property funds after the Brexit vote[1] and strategic bond funds as interest rates expectations rose[2]. By contrast, Exchange Traded Funds can be traded throughout the day and investors generally transact with each other via the exchange. If necessary the fund issuer must create (or redeem) more units to meet demand and then buy (or sell) the same amount of underlying securities. Whilst, the liquidity of the fund is ultimately only as good as the underlying assets, there is, however, additional liquidity in the secondary market for shares in the fund which can be bought or sold amongst investors. For example, there have been circumstances when some markets have closed, and the underlying shares aren’t traded, the ETF continues to trade (albeit a premium or discount to Net Asset Value (NAV) may appear owing to the inability of the ETF to create/redeem units when there is no access to the underlying shares) and indeed becomes a vehicle of price discovery for when the market eventually reopens[3]. As regards fees, whereas funds have different fee scales for different types of investor based on share classes available, the fees on ETFs are the same for all investors meaning that the smallest investors benefit from the economies of scale that the largest investors bring. Whilst the active/passive (we prefer the terms non-index/index) debate grabs the headlines, it is this targeted acces to specific asset classes, fee fairness and secondary market liquidity that makes ETFs so appealing to investors of any size. A summary of similarities and differences of ETFs to other types of fund is presented in the table below: [1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/3986464-investors-u-k-property-etfs-affected-9b-fund-lock [2] https://www.ft.com/content/a007d563-4454-3c92-aeaa-4d0dc64e425b [3] https://www.cnbc.com/id/41354109  From the table above, we see how, ETFs offer the combined functionality of a collective investment scheme with the flexibility and access of an exchange traded instrument. Ways to use ETFs We see three key applications for ETFs in portfolio construction: “core”, “blended” and “pure”. Using ETFs for a core portfolio means creating and managing a core asset allocation constructed using ETFs, with satellite “true active” fund holdings for each of the same exposures in an attempt to capture some manager alpha at a fund level. This enables a portfolio manager to reduce partially the overall client costs without forsaking their hope of higher expected returns from “true active” non-index fund holdings for each exposure. Using ETFs for a blended portfolio means creating and managing an asset allocation constructed using ETFs for efficient markets or markets where a portfolio managers may lack sufficient research or experience; and active funds for asset class exposures where the manager has high conviction in their ability to deliver alpha from active fund or security selection. For example, a UK portfolio manager with high conviction in UK stock picking may prefer to access US equity exposure using an ETF that tracks the S&P500 rather than attempting to pick stocks in the US. Use of ETFs for a pure ETF Portfolio means creating and managing an asset allocation constructed using ETFs entirely. For example, a portfolio manager looking to substantially reduce overall client costs without compromising on diversification is able to design a portfolio using ETFs for each asset class and risk exposure. Fig.3. Illustration representing core, blended and pure approaches to ETF adoptio  Who uses ETFs and why?
ETFs are used by investors large and small to build and manage their portfolios. As well as providing low cost, diversified and transparent access to a market or asset class, the liquidity of ETFs namely that 1) they only invest in liquid securities that index-eligible and 2) the ETF can itself be bought or sold between market participants means that investors can adapt their portfolio in a timely basis, if required. Put differently traditional funds are one of the few things in the world that you can only sell back to the person you bought it from (the fund issuer), and that fund issuer has the right to say no. Furthermore, the dealing cycles for traditional funds are long. If you want to sell one to buy another, it could take 4-5 days to sell and 4-5 days to buy. An 8-10 day round trip is hardly timely. In the meantime you may be out of the market, which could dramatically impact performance, particularly in periods of extreme volatility. By contrast, ETFs are designed to be tradable on a secondary market via an exchange, and can be bought and sold between market participants on the same day without the fund manager’s involvement. This means that if investors want to alter their risk posture to respond to changing events, they can do so instantly and effectively if required. ETFs have therefore grown in popularity as a core part of institutional and retail investor’s toolkit for portfolio and risk management.  [2 min read, open as pdf]
A Factor-based approach to investing Factor-based investing means choosing securities for an inclusion in an index based on what characteristics or factors drive their risk-return behaviour, rather than a particular geography or sector. Just like food can be categorised simply by ingredients, it can also be analysed more scientifically by nutrients. Factors are like the nutrients in an investment portfolio. What are the main factors? There is a realm of academic and empirical study behind the key investment factors, but they can be summarised as follows The different factors can be summarised as follows:
Which has been the strongest performing factor? Momentum has been the best performing factor over the last 5 years. Value has been the worst performing factor. Fig.1. World equity factor performance  Source: Elston research, Bloomberg data A crowded trade? Data points to Momentum being a “crowded trade”, because of the number of people oerweighting stocks with momentum characteristics. This level of crowdedness can be an indicator of potential drawdowns to come. Fig.2. Momentum Factor is looking increasingly crowded  Source: MSCI Factor Crowding Model The best time to buy into a Momentum strategy has been when it is uncrowded – like in 2001 and 2009, which is also true of markets more generally. MSCI’s research suggests that with crowding scores greater than 1 were historically more likely to experience significant drawdowns in performance over subsequent months than factors with lower crowding scores. Fig.3. Factors with higher crowding score can be an indicator of greater potential drawdowns, relative to less crowded factors  Source: MSCI Factor Crowding Model
Rotation to Value The value-based approach to investing has delivered lack lustre performance in recent times, hence strategists’ calls that there may be a potential “rotation” into Value-oriented strategies in coming months as the post-COVID world normalises. But can factors be timed? Marketing timing, factor timing? Market timing is notoriously difficult. Factor timing is no different. To get round this, a lot of fund providers have offered multi-factor strategies, which allocate to factors either statically or dynamically. Whilst convenient as a catch-all solution, unless factor exposures are dynamically and actively managed, the exposure to all factors in aggregate will be similar to overall market exposure. This has led to a loss of confidence and conviction in statically weighted multi-factor funds. Summary Factors help break down and isolate the core drivers of risk and return.
For more on Factor investing, see https://www.elstonsolutions.co.uk/insights/category/factor-investing https://www.msci.com/factor-investing  [7 min read, open as pdf] Whether or not investors enjoy creating and managing their own ETF portfolios, ready-made portfolios and funds of ETFs and index funds offer a convenient alternative In this series of articles, I look at some of the key topics explored in my book “How to Invest With Exchange Traded Funds” that also underpin the portfolio design work Elston does for discretionary managers and financial advisers. Who needs or wants a ready-made portfolio? Individual investors of all wealth levels may find the prospect of engaging with their investment daunting, time-consuming, or both. This is heightened by the high number of investment products and services available. In the UK, there are over 70 discretionary management firms, and over 3,000 investment funds and ETFs. For this reason, DIY investors may want ready-made portfolios that are an easy-to-buy and easy-to-own investment. Not only do these solutions look like a simple alternative but they can also address and can potentially mitigate behavioural mistakes. We look at three alternative ways of delivering ready-made portfolios for DIY investors in more detail: multi-asset funds, ETF portfolios and multi-asset ETFs. Multi-Asset Funds Multi-Asset Funds (also known as Asset Allocation Funds or Multi-Manager Funds) are the most established type of ready-made portfolios. By owning a single fund (or in some cases an investment trust), investors get exposure to a diversified portfolio of underlying funds to reflect a specific asset allocation. This means that having selected a strategy, the investor does not need to worry about asset allocation, or about the portfolio construction to achieve that asset allocation, or about security selection within each asset class exposure. We categorise Multi-Asset Funds into different categories by investment strategy:
 Despite the cost of wrapping underlying funds within a fund structure, economies of scale mean that Multi-Asset Funds can be delivered to investors at highly competitive price points with very low minimums. However, the disadvantage is that Multi Asset Funds have a one-size-fits-all approach that means there is little scope for customisation to the individual needs and characteristics of the investor’s objectives and constraints. ETF Portfolios ETF Portfolios are basket of individual ETFs providing an asset allocation. Rather than wrapping an investment strategy within a fund, a model portfolio is made available as a basket of ETFs that can be bought individually to create the strategy. Model portfolios may be “strategic” (rebalanced to fixed weights of the same securities) or “tactical” (rebalanced to changing weights of the same or different ETFs). Model portfolios are research portfolios meaning that the model portfolio provider has no control of client assets so it is up to a portfolio manager, adviser or DIY investor to implement any changes should they wish to follow a given model portfolio strategy. The advantages of ETF Portfolios include: firstly, potentially lower fees owing to removal of a fund wrapper to hold the strategy; secondly greater flexibility and specificity with regards to asset allocation design; and lastly agility as strategies can be launched or closed with ease. An example of an ETF Portfolio could be as simple as a classic global 60/40 Equity/Bond strategy constructed with ETFs.  Whilst ostensibly very simple – a two security portfolio – the underlying holdings of each ETF means that investors get exposure to 3,133 equities in global and developed markets (approximately 47 countries) and 1,660 investment grade bonds in over 24 countries. Put simply, the investor is able to buy the bulk of the global equity and bond markets with two simple trades. When manager, advisers or research firms create model portfolios, the weighting scheme can be one of three types as summarised in the table below.  The ability to design and create ETF Portfolios with an increasing number of ETF building blocks means that both traditional (asset managers, stock brokers) and non-traditional providers (e.g. trade publications, investment clubs, industry experts) can create investment strategies that can be “followed” by investors. However, the usual due diligence rules for any investment provider should be applied as regards their investment process. Whilst the rise of more bespoke ETF strategies is welcome, the convenience of having a single strategy delivered as a single security from a portfolio construction perspective is attractive. This is where Multi-Asset ETFs could have a role to play. Multi-Asset ETFs Multi-Asset ETFs are an emerging way of delivering the returns of a managed ETF Portfolio using a single instrument. Whereas multi-asset funds are often funds of index-tracking funds, Multi-Asset ETFs can be viewed as an “ETF of ETFs”. In the US, there are a number of multi-asset ETFs available providing a ready-made allocation within a single trade. In the UK, there are currently only two ranges of multi-asset ETFs available. Multi-Asset Infrastructure (launched April 2015) SPDR® Morningstar Multi-Asset Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF ESG Multi-Asset ETFs (launched September 2020) BlackRock ESG Multi-Asset Conservative Portfolio UCITS ETF (MACG) BlackRock ESG Multi-Asset Moderate Portfolio UCITS ETF (MAMG) BlackRock ESG Multi-Asset Growth Portfolio UCITS ETF (MAGG) We expect multi-asset funds, constructed with ETFs and index funds, to gain more traction than multi-asset ETFs because as a “buy and hold” ready-made portfolio multi-asset funds do not need the intraday dealing availability that ETFs provide. Multi-asset funds (constructed with index funds/ETFs), ETF Portfolios, and Multi-asset ETFs provide a ready-made one stop for delivering a multi-asset investment strategy for all or part of an investment portfolio, whether defined by a multi-asset index or not. The advantages of a multi-asset fund of ETFs as a ready-made portfolio The advantages of a “one and done” approach include collectivisation, convenience and consistency. Firstly, is collectivisation of investor’s by objective which creates cost efficiency from the economies of scale. Adopting a collectivised approach, can be done where each group of clients shares the same goal (as defined by, for example, a target risk level or income objective, or volatility objective or target date). This can help achieve economies of scale and lower the cost of offering professionally managed asset allocations in at least three different ways. Firstly, each cohort becomes a multi-million pound ‘client’ of an asset manager who can deploy institutional-type bargaining power on the pricing of the underlying funds within their asset allocation. Secondly, the collective scale reduces frictional trading costs of implementing the asset allocation decisions: one managed investment journey is more efficient to manage and deliver than thousands of individual ones. Finally, by focusing on actively managing the asset allocation as the main determinant of the level and variability of returns[1] the asset allocation can be implemented with index-tracking ETFs to keep costs down. Secondly is convenience. Rather than focusing solely on building optimal multi-asset class portfolios that need monitoring, the proposition of investment offerings can be engineered to eliminate poor behavioural tendencies that prevent effective management. Engineering funds so that they offer a single investment journey which investors do not necessarily need to monitor regularly in order to reach their goals can help reduce the perceived hassle of investing. This can motivate individuals to invest. Such professionally managed funds prevent investors from either not rebalancing the portfolio or doing it in an improper fashion due to behavioural tendencies such as status quo bias[2] and disposition effect[3]. Furthermore, a professionally managed strategy can respond to other risks aside from market risk such as shortfall, concentration or longevity risks which lay investors can overlook. An additional advantage of offering managed diversified funds is that it automatically curtails the number of products offered, thereby reducing cognitive load of making an investment decision and can prevent decision deferral.[4] Finally is consistency. Investors in each strategy experience the same time-weighted investment returns thereby reducing the likely dispersion of returns that a group of investors would experience through an entirely self-directed approach. This consistency is why multi-asset funds have also been adopted by some financial advisers as a core or complete holding within a centralised investment proposition. The disadvantage of a ready-made portfolio are not secret. They are designed as a “one-size-fits-all” product with no scope for customisation. The respective features of the various types of ready-made portfolio are set out below. Whereas multi-asset funds of ETFs, and multi-asset ETFs can be accessed via a single trade, their scope for customisation is low. ETF Portfolios have the highest degree of flexibility for creating custom strategies, but are not accessible via a single trade.  Summary Ready-made portfolios are easy to buy and easy to own. They enable a “set and forget” approach to investment management which can help design out key behavioural risks, or provide a useful core holding to a broader strategy. Obviously the primary choice is which strategy an investor must choose, or their adviser should recommend depending on their risk-return objectives and suitability considerations. [1] Ibbotson, “The Importance of Asset Allocation.” [2] Samuelson and Zeckhauser, “Status Quo Bias in Decision Making.” [3] Shefrin and Statman, “The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long”; Weber and Camerer, “The Disposition Effect in Securities Trading.” [4] Iyengar and Jiang, “How More Choices Are Demotivating”; Iyengar, Huberman, and Jiang, “How Much Choice Is Too Much?”  High risk, complex Exchange Traded Products that amplify (with “leverage”) index’ moves in the same (“long”) or opposite (“short”) direction are designed for sophisticated investors who want to trade and speculate over the short-term, rather than make a strategic or tactical investment decisions. Whilst they can have a short-term role to play, they should be handled with care. If you think you understand them, then you’ve only just begun. In this series of articles, I look at some of the key topics explored in my book “How to Invest With Exchange Traded Funds” that also underpin the portfolio design work Elston does for discretionary managers and financial advisers. For more speculators and or more sophisticated risk managers there are a range of inverse (short) and leveraged (geared) ETPs that can rapidly add or remove upside or downside risk exposure in short-term (daily) market movements. The difference between speculating and investing should be clearly defined.
Owing to the higher degree of risk management and understanding required to use these products, they may not be suitable for DIY or long-term investors. However a degree of knowledge is helpful to identify them within a managed portfolio or amongst research sites. Defining terms Unlike their more straightforward unleveraged ETF cousins, leveraged and inverse or “short” ETNs should be for sophisticated investor or professional use only. So hold onto your seat. Shorting and leverage are important tools in a professional manager’s arsenal. But first we need to define terms. Going long: means buying a security now, to sell it at a later date at a higher value. The buyer has profited from the difference in the initial buying price and final selling price. Going short: means borrowing a security from a lender and selling it now, with an intent to buy it back at a later date at a lower value. Once bought, the security can be returned to the lender and the borrower (short-seller) has profited from the difference in initial selling and final buying price. Leverage: means increasing the magnitude of directional returns using borrowed funds. Leverage can be achieved by:
Underlying index: is the underlying index exposure against which a multiplier is applied. The underlying index could be on a particular market, commodity or currency. Potential applications Managers typically have a decision only whether to buy, sell or hold a security. By introducing products that provide short and/or leveraged exposure gives managers more tools at their disposal to manage risk or to speculate. Going short, and using leverage can be done for short-term risk management purposes, or for speculative purposes. Leverage in either direction (long-short) can be used either to amplify returns, profit from very short market declines, or change the risk profile of a portfolio without disposing of the underlying holdings. Short/Leveraged ETPs available to DIY investors The following types of short/leveraged ETPs are available to implement these strategies. Fig.1. Potential application of inverse/leveraged ETPs  The ability to take short and/or leveraged positions was previously confined to professional managers and ultra-high net worth clients. The availability of more complex Exchange Traded Products gives investors and their advisers the opportunity to manage currency risk, create short positions (profit from a decline in prices) and create leveraged positions (profit more than the increase or decrease in prices).
Risks Leveraged and short ETPs have significantly greater risks than conventional ETFs. Some of the key risks are outlined below:
If concerned regarding risk of deploying short/leveraged ETPs, set a capped allocation i (eg no more than 3% to be held in leveraged/inverse ETPs, and a holding period for leveraged/inverse ETPs not to exceed 1-5 days). US Case Study: Inverse Volatility Blow Up VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (IVX) and ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF were products created in the US for professional investors who wanted to profit from declining volatility on the US equity market by tracking the inverse (-1x) returns of the S&P VIX Short-Term Futures Index. The VIX is itself an reflecting the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500. As US equity market volatility steadily declined the stellar performance of the strategy in prior years not only made it popular with hedge funds[2], but also lured retail investors who are unlikely to have understood the complexity of the product. By complexity, we would argue that a note inversely tracking a future on the implied volatility of the stock market is hardly simple. On 5th February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its largest ever one day decline. This resulted in the VIX Index spiking +116% (from implied ~12% volatility to implied ~33% volatility). The inverse VIX ETNs lost approximately 80% of their value in one day which resulted in an accelerated closure of the product, and crystallising the one day loss for investors[3]. The SEC (US regulator) focus was not on the product itself but whether and why it had been mis-sold to retail investors who would not understand its complexity[4]. Summary In conclusion, on the one hand, Leveraged/Inverse ETP are convenient ways of rapidly altering risk-return exposures and provide tools with which speculators can play short-term trends in the market. Used by professionals, they also have a role in supporting active risk management. However, the risks are higher than for conventional ETFs and more complex to understand and quantify. RISK WARNING! Short and/or Leveraged ETPs are highly complex financial instruments that carry significant risks and can amplify overall portfolio risk. They are intended for financially sophisticated investors who understand these products, and their potential pay offs. They can be used to take a very short term view on an underlying index, for example, for day-trading purposes. They are not intended as a buy and hold investment. [1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/1457061-how-to-beat-leveraged-etf-decay [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/the-obscure-volatility-security-thats-become-the-focus-of-this-sell-off-is-halted-after-an-80-percent-plunge.html [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-06/credit-suisse-is-said-to-consider-redemption-of-volatility-note [4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/vix-fund-blowups-spur-u-s-to-probe-if-misconduct-played-a-role  [5 min read, open as pdf]
What is Zero Carbon investing The Zero Carbon Society at Cambridge University is one of many campaign groups calling for university endowment funds to divest from all fossil fuels. This has been termed “Zero Carbon” investing. The divestment trend started in the US in 2012 when the city of Seattle divested from fossil fuels. In 2014, Stanford University followed suit. Campaigns across the US and UK led to other universities following suit. Some of the reasons universities found it hard to ensure that their investments were “fossil free” is because:
The challenge When set this challenge by a university college, we proposed to do two things. Firstly to create a Zero Carbon SRI benchmark to show how Zero Carbon investing could be done whilst also focusing on other ESG considerations. Secondly, to create a Zero Carbon portfolio to deliver on the primary aim of full divestment. Creating a Zero Carbon SRI benchmark We wanted to create a benchmark for the endowment’s managers that not only screened out fossil fuels, but went further to screen out one of the main consumer of fossil fuels, the Utilities sector, as well as other extractive industries – namely the Materials sector. We also wanted to screen in companies with high ESG scores and low controversy risk and cover the global equity opportunity set. We worked with MSCI to create a custom index, the catchily-named (for taxonomy reasons) the MSCI ACWI ex Energy ex Materials ex Utilities SRI Index (the “Custom Index”, please refer to Notice below). Creating a Zero Carbon portfolio The second part of the project was to create an implementable investment strategy that maintained a similar risk-return profile to World Equities, but fully excluded the Energy, Materials and Utilities sectors. Rather than creating a fund which introduces additional layer of costs, this was achievable using sector-based ETF portfolio. This portfolio meets the primary objective of creating a Zero Carbon, fully divested, world equity mandate. In the absence of ESG/SRI sector-based ETFs, it is not yet possible to create a sector-adjusted ESG/SRI ETF portfolio. But we expact that to change in the future. Custom Index Performance The back-test of both the custom index could deliver similar risk-return characteristics to global equities. The concern was would those back-test results continue once the index and portfolio went live. The answer is yes. Whilst the custom index has shown outperformance, that was not the objective. The objective was to access the same opportunity set, but with the fossil-free, ESG and socially responsible screens in place. Fig.1. Custom Index performance simulation from June 2012 & live performance from June 2018  Zero Carbon Portfolio performance Similarly, the Zero Carbon portfolio has delivered comparable performance to MSCI World – hence no “missing out” on the opportunity set whilst being fully divested from fossil fuels. Although not intentional, the exclusion of Energy, Materials & Utilities has benefitted performance and meant that the performance, net of trading and ongoing ETF costs, is ahead of the MSCI World Index. Fig.2. Zero Carbon ETF portfolio performance from June 2018  Summary
Whatever your views on the pros and cons of divestment, Zero Carbon investing is not an insurmountable challenge, and the combination of index solutions and ETF portfolios solutions creates a range of implementable options for asset owners and asset managers alike. IMPORTANT NOTICE ABOUT THE CUSTOM INDEX With reference to the MSCI ACWI ex Energy ex Materials ex Utilities SRI Index (“Custom Index”). Where Source: MSCI is noted, the following notice applies. Source: MSCI. The MSCI data is comprised of a custom index calculated by MSCI, and as requested by, Queens’ College Cambridge. The MSCI data is for internal use only and may not be redistributed or used in connection with creating or offering any securities, financial products or indices. Neither MSCI nor any third party involved in or relating to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data (the “MSCI Parties”) makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and the MSCI Parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any of the MSCI Parties have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.  Which asset classes are not indexable; what proxies do they have that can be indexed; and why it can make sense to blend ETFs and Investment Trusts for creating an allocation to alternative asset classes In this series of articles, I look at some of the key topics explored in my book “How to Invest With Exchange Traded Funds” that also underpin the portfolio design work Elston does for discretionary managers and financial advisers. Non-indexable asset classes Whilst Equities, Bonds and Cash are readily indexable, there are also exposures that will remain non-indexable because they are:
It is however possible to represent some of these alternative class exposures using liquid index proxies. Index providers and ETF issuers have worked on creating a growing number of indices for specific exposures in the Liquid Alternative Asset space. Some examples are set out below:
 Alternative asset index proxies Whilst these liquid proxies for those asset classes are helpful from a diversification perspective, it is important to note that they necessarily do not share all the same investment features, and therefore do not carry the same risks and rewards as the less liquid version of the asset classes they represent.  While ETFs for alternatives assets will not replicate holding the risk-return characteristics of that exposure directly, they provide a convenient form of accessing equities and/or bonds of companies that do have direct exposure to those characteristics. Using investment trusts for non-index allocations Ironically, the investment vehicle most suited for non-indexable investments is the oldest “Exchange Traded” collective investment there is: the Investment Company (also known as a “closed-end fund” or “investment trust”). The first UK exchange traded investment company was the Foreign & Colonial Investment Trust, established in 1868. Like ETFs, investment companies were originally established to bring the advantages of a pooled approach to the investor of “moderate means”.  For traditional fund exposures, e.g. UK Equities, Global Equities, our preference is for ETFs over actively managed Investment Trusts owing to the performance persistency issue that is prevalent for active (non-index) funds. Furthermore, investment trusts have the added complexity of internal leverage and the external performance leverage created by the share price’s premium/discount to NAV – a problem that can become more intense during periods of market stress.
However, for accessing hard-to-reach asset classes, Investment Trusts are superior to open-ended funds, as they are less vulnerable to ad hoc subscriptions and withdrawals. The Association of Investment Company’s sector categorisations gives an idea of the non-indexable asset classes available using investment trusts: these include Hedge Funds, Venture Capital Trusts, Forestry & Timber, Renewable Energy, Insurance & Reinsurance Strategies, Private Equity, Direct Property, Infrastructure, and Leasing. A blended approach Investors wanting to construct portfolios accessing both indexable investments and non-indexable investments could consider constructing a portfolio with a core of lower cost ETFs for indexable investments and a satellite of higher cost specialist investment trusts providing access to their preferred non-indexable investments. For investors, who like non-index investment strategies, this hybrid approach may offer the best of both world. Summary The areas of the investment opportunity set that will remain non-indexable, are (in our view) those that are hard to replicate as illiquid in nature (hard to access markets or parts of markets); and those that require or reward subjective management and skill. Owing to the more illiquid nature of underlying non-indexable assets, these can be best accessed via a closed-ended investment trust that does not have the pressure of being an open-ended fund. ETFs provide a convenient, diversified and cost-efficient way of accessing liquid alternative asset classes that are indexable and provide a proxy or exposure for that particular asset class. Examples include property securities, infrastructure equities & bonds, listed private equity, commodities and gold.  [5 minute read, open as pdf] Sign up for our upcoming CPD webinar on Real Assets for diversification
What are “Real Assets”? Real Assets can be defined as “physical assets that have an intrinsic worth due to their substance and property”[1]. Real assets can be taken to include precious metals, commodities, real estate, infrastructure, land, equipment and natural resources. Because of the “inflation-protection” objective of investing in real assets (the rent increases in property, the tariff increases in infrastructure), real asset funds also include exposure to inflation-linked government bonds as a financial proxy for a real asset. Why own Real Assets? There are a number of rationales for investing in Real Assets. The primary ones are to:
Accessing Real Assets Institutional investors can access Real Assets directly and indirectly. They can acquired direct property and participate in the equity or debt financing of infrastructure projects. Directly. For example, the Pensions Infrastructure Platform, established in 2021 has enabled direct investment by pension schemes into UK ferry operators, motorways and hospital construction projects. This provides funding for government-backed project and real asset income and returns for institutional investors. Institutional investors can also access Real Assets indirectly using specialist funds as well as mainstream listed funds such as property securities funds and commodities funds. Retail investors can access Real Assets mostly indirectly through funds. There is a wide range of property funds, infrastructure funds, commodity funds and natural resources funds to choose from. But investors have to decide on an appropriate fund structure.
The rise of real asset funds The first UK diversified real asset fund was launched in 2014, with competitor launches in 2018. There is now approximately £750m invested across the three largest real asset funds available to financial advisers and their clients, with fund OCFs ranging from 0.97% to 1.46%. Following the gating of an Equity fund (Woodford), a bond fund (GAM) and several property funds for liquidity reasons, there has – rightly – been increased focus by the regulator and fund providers (Authorised Corporate Directors or “ACDs”) on the liquidity profile of underlying assets. As a result, given their increased scale, real asset fund managers are increasingly turning to mainstream funds and indeed liquid ETFs to gain access to specific asset classes. Indeed, on our analysis, one real assets funds has the bulk of its assets invested in mainstream funds and ETFs that are available to advisers directly. Now there’s no shame in that – part of the rationale for using a Real Assets fund is to select and combine funds and manage the overall risk of the fund. But what it does mean is that discretionary managers and advisers have the option of creating diversified real asset exposure, using the same or similar underlying holdings, for a fraction of the cost to clients. Creating a liquid real asset index portfolio We have created the Elston Liquid Real Asset index portfolio of ETFs in order to:
We have built the index portfolio using the following building blocks
As regards asset allocation, we are targeting a look-through ~50/50 balance between equity-like securities and bond-like securities to ensure that the strategy provides beta reduction as well as diversification when included in a portfolio. For the index portfolio simulation, we have used an equal weighted approach. Fig.1. Performance of the Liquid Real Asset Index Portfolio (.ELRA)  Source: Elston research, Bloomberg data. Total returns from end December 2018 to end September 2020 for selected real asset funds. Since December 2018, the Sanlam Real Assets fund has returned 19.99%, the Elston Real Asset Index Portfolio has returned +19.76%. This compares to +5.86% for the Architas Diversified Real Asset fund and +0.16% for the Waverton Real Assets Fund. What about Beta Our Real Asset Index Portfolio has a Beta of 0.75 to the Elston 60/40 GBP index so represents a greater risk reduction than Waverton (0.86) and Sanlam (0.84), which are all higher beta than Architas (0.53). Fig.2. Real Asset strategies’ beta to a 60/40 GBP Index  Source: Elston research, Bloomberg data. Weekly data relative to Elston 60/40 GBP Index, GBP terms Dec-18 to Sep-20. Finally, by accessing the real asset ETFs directly, there is no cost for the overall fund structure, hence the implementation cost for an index portfolio of ETFs is substantially lower. Fig.3. Cost comparison of Real Asset funds vs index portfolio of ETFs  Source: Elston research, Bloomberg data
Fund or ETF Portfolio? The advantage of a funds-based approach is convenience (single-line holding), as well as having a a manager allocate dynamically between the different real asset exposures within the fund. The advantage of an index portfolio is simplicity, transparency and cost. Creating a managed ETF portfolio strategy that dynamically allocates to the different real asset classes over the market cycle is achievable and can be implemented on demand. Summary The purpose of this analysis was to note that:
[1] Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/realasset.asp  There’s no such thing as passive. Index investors make active decisions around asset allocation, index selection and index methodology. In this series of articles, I look at some of the key topics explored in my book “How to Invest With Exchange Traded Funds” that also underpin the portfolio design work Elston does for discretionary managers and financial advisers. If indices represent exposures, what is index investing and what are the ETFs that track them? Does using an index approach to investing mean you are a ‘passive investor’? I am not comfortable with the terms “active” and “passive”. A dynamically managed approach to asset allocation using index-tracking ETFs is not “passive”. The selection of an equal weighted index exposure over a cap weighted index is also an active decision. The design of an index methodology, requires active parameter choices. Hence our preference for the terms “index funds” and “non-index funds”. Indices represent asset classes. ETFs track indices. Index investing is the use of ETFs to construct and manage an investment portfolio. The evolution of indices The earliest equity index in the US is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) which was created by Wall street Journal editor Charles Dow. The index launched on 26 May 1896, and is named after Dow and statistician Edward Jones and consists of 30 large publicly owned U.S. companies. It is a price-weighted index (meaning the prices of each security are totalled and divided by the number of each security to derive the index level). The earliest equity index in the UK is the FT30 Index (previously the FN Ordinary Index) was created by the Financial Times (previously the Financial News). The index launched on 1st July 1935 and consists of 30 large publicly owned UK companies. It is an equal-weighted index (meaning each of the 30 companies has an equal weight in the index). The most common equity indices now are the S&P500 (launched in 1957) for the US equity market and the FTSE100 (launched in 1984) for the UK Equity market. These are both market capitalisation-weighted indices (meaning the weight of each company within the index is proportionate to its market capitalisation (the share price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding)). According to the Index Industry Association, there are now approximately 3.28m indices, compared to only 43,192 public companies . This is primarily because of demand for highly customised versions of various indices used for benchmarking equities, bonds, commodities and derivatives. By comparison there are some 7,178 index-tracking ETPs globally. The reason why the number of indices is high is not because they are all trying to do something new, but because they are all doing something slightly different. For example, the S&P500 Index, the S&P500 (hedged to GBP) Index and the S&P 500 excluding Technology Index are all variants around the same core index. So the demand for indices is driven not only by investor demand for more specific and nuanced analysis of particular market exposures, but also for innovation from index providers. What makes a good index benchmark? For an index to be a robust benchmark, it has to meet certain criteria. Indices provided a combined price level (and return level) for a basket of securities for use as a reference, benchmark or investment strategy. Whilst a reference point is helpful, the use of indices as benchmarks enables informed comparison of fund or portfolio strategies. An index can be used as a benchmark so long as it has the following qualities (known as the “SAMURAI” test based on the mnemonic based on key benchmark characteristics in the CFA curriculum). It must be:
Alternative weighting schemes Whereas traditional equity indices took a price-weighted, equal-weighted or market capitalisation weighted approach, there are a growing number of indices that have alternative weighting schemes: given the underlying securities are the same, these variation of weighting scheme also contributes to the high number of indices relative to underlying securities. The advent of growing data and computing power means that indices have become more granular to reflect investors desire for more nuanced exposures and alternative weighting methodologies .  Whether indices are driven by investor needs for isolated asset class exposures or by other preferences, there is a growing choice of building blocks for portfolio constructors.
Index investing Whilst indices have traditionally been used for performance measurement, if the Efficient Markets Hypothesis holds true, it makes sense to use an index as an investment strategy. A fund that matches the weightings of the securities within an index is an index-tracking fund. The use of single or multiple funds that track indices to construct and manage a portfolio is called “index investing”. We define index investing as 1) using indices (whether traditional cap-weighted or alternatively weighted) to represent the various exposures used within a strategic or tactical asset allocation framework, and 2) using index-tracking ETFs to achieve access to that exposure and/or asset allocation. The advantages of index investing with ETFs are:
As index investors we have a choice of tools at our disposal. The primary choice is to whether to use Index Funds or ETPs to get access to a specific index exposure. Index funds and ETPs Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) is the overarching term for investment products that are traded on an exchange and index-tracking. There are three main sub-sets:
Individual investors are most likely to come across physical Exchange Traded Funds and some Exchange Traded Commodities such as gold. Professional investors are most likely to use any or all types of ETPs. Both individual and professional investors alike are using ETPs for the same fundamental purposes: as a precise quantifiable building block with which to construct and manage a portfolio. Index investors have the choice of using index funds or ETFs. Index funds are bought or sold from the fund issuer, not on an exchange. ETFs are bought or sold on an exchange. For individual investors index funds may not be available at the same price point as for institutional investors. Furthermore, the range of index funds available to individual investors is much less diverse than ETFs. Trading index funds takes time (approximately 4-5 days to sell and settle, 4-5 days to purchase, so 8-10 days to switch), whereas ETFs can be bought on a same-day basis, and cash from sales settles 2 days after trading reducing unfunded round-trip times to 4 days for switches. If stock brokers allow it, they may allow purchases of one transaction to take place based on the sales proceeds of another transaction so long as they both settle on the same day. The ability to trade should not be seen as an incentive to trade, rather it enables the timely reaction to material changes in the market or economy. For professional investors, some index funds are cheaper than ETFs. Where asset allocation is stable and long-term, index funds may offer better value compared to ETFs. Where asset allocation is dynamic and there are substantial liquidity or time-sensitive implementation requirements, ETFs may offer better functionality than index funds. Professional investors can also evaluate the use of ETFs in place of index futures . For significant trade sizes, a complete cost-benefit analysis is required. The benefit of the ETF approach being that futures roll can be managed within an ETF, benefitting from economies of scale. For large investors, detailed comparison is required in order to evaluate the relative merits of each. The benefits of using ETFs There are considerable benefits of using ETFs when constructing and managing portfolios. Some of these benefits are summarised below:
Summary There’s no such thing as “passive investing”. There is such a thing as “index investing” and it means adopting a systematic (rules-based), diversified and transparent approach to access target asset class, screened, factor or strategy exposures in a straightforward, or very nuanced way. It is the systematisation of the investment process that enables competitive pricing, relative to active, “non-index” funds. This is a trend which has a long way to run before any “equilibrium” between index and active investing is reached. Most investors, automatically enrolled into a workplace pension scheme are index investors without knowing it. The “instutionalisation of retail” means that a similar investment approach is permeating into other channels such as discretionary managers, financial advisers, and self-directed investors. © Elston Consulting 2020 all rights reserved |
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