How are ESG focused indices different from traditional indicesESG indices take the same universe of companies as a traditional index but make rules-based systematic adjustments. For example, a set of ESG index rules might exclude companies with exposure to alcohol, tobacco, fossil fuels, weapons manufacturing, and adult entertainment. Furthermore, the rules might adjust the weighting of the company based on its ESG score. Why are ESG indices important?ESG indices are used by ESG-focused index tracking funds and ETFs. By comparing the performance of ESG focused indices and traditional indices we can see whether or not the ESG focus positively or negatively impacted performnace relative to traditional equity indices. Whilst pre-2022 some have argued for an ESG premium over the long-run (good companies should be well rewarded via a lower risk premium), since 2022 the hard reality of ESG relative underperformance compared to traditional equities is a reminder that any such premium is indeed "long-run", and in the meantime, short- and medium-term performance differentials matters too. What are the main differences between ESG focused indices and traditional indices?Whilst methodologies will vary from index to index, at a high level the key difference of ESG indices and funds to traditional indices and funds is:
When did ESG performance shine?The Covid era seemed like a golden era for ESG funds and they received record inflows. ESG focused world equity indices slightly outperformed their parent indices in 2020 at a time when the world stood still and the oil price briefly went negative. Investors could get similar or better returns, and have a clearer conscience. What changed in 2022?A combination of pent-up demand, monetary supply and then the Russia-Ukraine war and related sanctions and energy crisis marked the return of inflation. ESG focused funds excluded fossil fuels and materials and so did not hold "inflation protective" sectors that traditional equity indices continued to hold. We explored this further in our published inflation-related research at the time. Why were ESG funds less resilient to the inflation shock?Ironically, the exposures that do best in an energy shock and a higher inflation era, such as energy, materials, and commodities are the sectors that were excluded or low-weighted in ESG focused indices/funds. Similarly following the Russia/Ukraine war and heightened geopolitical risks, the defence sector has performed very strongly: this is part of traditional indices but not part of ESG indices. What is the difference for ESG indices pre and post Covid?In summary, ESG indices fared similarly to traditional indices pre-Covid, fared slightly better than traditional indices during Covid, and have fared worse than traditional indices since Covid. We are now living in a higher inflation era, with changing energy supply chains and an era of geopolitical insecurity. Furthermore with the new US Presidential administration under Donald Trump being pro-oil and less generous to clean energy, these trends could continue. How should advisers navigate clients' ESG preferencesIncreasingly advisers want or need to take clients' ESG preferences into account. Some clients may have a ESG preference, so long as returns are not compromised. Other clients may have a ESG preference as a priority over returns. Having an informed discussion about the differences between traditional and ESG investing can help explore these preferences in a more informed context. ESG is struggling in a world of energy supply changes and increased defence spendingThe chart below shows the performance lag between a Socially Responsible world equity ETF and a traditional world equity ETF. The ESG-focused Socially Responsible ETF started materaily underperfomring from December 2021, just before the Russia-Ukraine war and related sanctions disrupted energy supply chains and forced the US and Europe to rethink their need for defence spending.
How hard is it to beat the world equity indexA world equity index is hard to beat. And, according to the SPIVA studies, very few active global equity managers do so persistently. Listed Private Market Managers have persistently outperformed world equitiesAnd yet, an index-tracking fund that tracks an index of the largest listed private market managers (firms such as Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, Brookfield, KKR and 3i) has persistently outperformed a broader world equity index since 2008. This persistent long-term outperformance is one of the reasons we like including Listed Private Market Managers as an exposure within portfolios we consult on. What is the return premium for Private Market Managers?We refresh our regular study and find that the long-term (since 2008) premium of Listed Private Market Managers performance over Public Equities increased from +3.2% at end 2023 to +3.4% at end 2024. For investment committess targeting a net return of say World Equities +2%, net of fees, exposure to a simple Private Market Managers ETF has consistently delivered persistent alpha. How did Private Market Managers perform in 2024?In 2024, Private Market Managers was one of the best performing asset classes, returning +31.7%, compared to +17.3% for World Equities, both in GBP terms. What is the right "PME" benchmark for a private equity fund?This raises the question should private equity funds aim to deliver returns above public equities (represented by a world equity index), or should they aim to deliver returns above the returns of a listed private market managers index (on a public market equivalent ("PME") calculation basis)? We think the latter: but we don't expect many to accept the challenge. What are the risks?Unsurprisingly, Listed Private Market Managers is a higher beta index, relative to a world equity index. This means when markets are up, they go up more. When markets are down, they go down more. The performance of Listed Private Market Managers experienced a major dip in 2022 as interest rates rose rapidly. This was because of the exposure of private market funds to rising borrowing costs. This made the sector even more sensitive to rising interest rates than the Property or Infrastructure sector, within the Alternative Assets basket. What about the "illiquidity premium"?We prefer not to have exposure to illiquid funds in any portfolio we consult on for our UK financial adviser community. Why? Because we think the "illiquidity premium" is elusive: hard to harvest if things go well, and evaporating quickly if things do not. What does this mean for investment committees?
How can UK advisers get exposure?This exposure is readily available via a London-listed ETF launched back in 2007. There is nothing new about this exposure, but it is certainly worth taking a fresh look. For platforms that cannot trade ETFs, advisers can consider a Alternatives fund that includes an allocation to a Listed Private Markets Manager ETF. Find out moreThe Bank of England, the UK's central bank, today cut rates by 25bp from 4.75% to 4.50% on weaker than expected economic growth. What is the market reaction?The market reaction is an increase in the FTSE 100 for two reasons: firstly lower borrowing costs are positive for corporate earnings, secondly Sterling has weakened on the news (reflecting the weaker economic growth outlook). Because FTSE 100 companies have predominantly USD-linked earnings, the translation effect makes the FTSE 100 look higher when Sterling weakens relative to the Dollar. What is the outlook for the UK economyWe focus on the three key macro drivers for the UK economy: Growth, Inflation and Rates. The Bank of England's central projections consistent with the MPC's forecast were changed as follows, relative to their November 2024 meeting: 2025 GDP Growth was downgraded from +1.50% to +0.75% 2025 CPI Inflation was upgraded from +2.75% to +3.50% The expected interest rate at the end of the three forecast period were increased from 3.50% to 4.00%. In summary this shows lower growth, higher inflation and higher terminal rates. (See chart) Might the Bank of England cut more?The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote was 7-2 in favour of a 25bp cut. Interestingly 2 voted to cut rates even deeper by 50bp to 4.25% to support economic growth SummaryAfter being slow to respond to the inflation shock in 2022, it now looks as though the Bank of England may have overtightened relative to growth and is now exposed to "stagflation risk". Stagflation is when the economy is caught in a lower growth and higher inflation trap. This will be a challenge for policymakers to navigate.
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[5 min read, open as pdf] Macro factors: growth, inflation and rates
The three key macro drivers that impact markets are Growth (“G”), Inflation (“I”), and interest Rates (“R”) the policy rates set by the Central Bank. Every economic data release is relevant in as much as what it means for the direction of these three key macro drivers. Monitoring these macro factors The chart shows the recent evolution of these three macro factors for the UK. What about other macro factors? Other key macro factors that impact markets include Sovereign Risk (e.g. higher risk premia for Emerging Markets), Credit Risk (higher risk premia for lower quality debt) and Liquidity Risk (higher rewarded return for less liquid investments). Macro factors affect all asset classes Macro factors impact equities and bonds alike. Macro factors impact the risk premia (and hence return expectations) on different asset classes. As these premia shift, so do expected returns. For example, corporate bonds are impacted by interest rates premium, inflation risk premium and credit premium. Small cap equities are impacted by interest rate premium, inflation risk premium, growth premium and liquidity premium. Macro factors are inter-related Macro factors are inter-related. In the text books, when economic growth is strong inflation pressure builds. Interest rates are raised to contain inflation. When interest rates fall, that can stimulate growth. In reality, it can be more complicated (and has been). The relationship between macro factors is key, as a read of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee minutes will show. Why we believe in an adaptive approach A static-allocation “cruise-control” portfolio had worked well until the bond market dislocation of 2022 driven by the inflation and rate-hike shock. But as markets don’t stand still, nor should portfolios, in our view. We believe in an adaptive approach adaptive approach to navigate market risks, rather than leaving portfolios in cruise-control. This categorically does not mean trying to time the markets. What it does mean is trying to steer away from potential hazards along the way. Conclusion Keeping an eye on the key macro drivers is therefore key to asset allocation decision-making. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter to get all our insights to your inbox (for UK financial advisers only)
[5 min read, open as pdf]
With rate cuts less likely, and zombie-inflation proving sticky, there are dual pressures on long-dated gilts. Whilst for some it might be satisfying to blame higher UK bond yields on Rachel Reeves, comparisons to the "Truss moment" are not entirely fair. There is a difference in my view. Here's why: Truss yield spike: fear that UK books not balancing, disregarding OBR, not showing workings - only UK yields affected. Idiosyncratic UK bond market risk. Conclusion? Politicians ignoring how markets work. Reeves yield spike: fear that US and UK books not balancing PLUS US/UK debt issuance indigestion. US & UK yields simultaneously affected. Idiosyncratic UK AND Systematic US/UK bond market risk. Conclusion? Markets ignoring what polticians say. The Reeves era of yield pressure is different from the Truss/ moment of her 2022 budget. But that doesn't help. A review of bond duration and how to mitigate the risk of zombie inflation is required to cope with bond indigestion. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter to get all our insights to your inbox (for UK financial advisers only)
Watch our 2025 Outlook in full What do we mean by "Zombie Inflation"? “Zombie” inflation means it is down but not dead. Inflation is past its peak and settling at or above the 2% target which is now a “floor,” not a “cap”. Wage growth pressure, trade friction and energy market volatility means that inflation is down but not dead. Inflation is past the peak but has not gone away Inflation has moderated from its peaks, but we believe it remains a very real risk. The 2% inflation target increasingly functions as a floor rather than a ceiling. Wage growth, energy volatility and geopolitical tensions could drive renewed inflationary pressures. Looking at rolling inflation for historic performance hurdles We look at rolling 5 year inflation (UK CPI) as smoothed measure to set hurdle rates for portfolios for past performance evaluation. The rolling 5 year data has not peaked yet (see chart) - it will take time for the inflation shock to wash out. Looking at breakeven inflation rates for expected return hurdles We look at 5 year breakeven inflation rates (UK BEIR) to set hurdle for target returns for UK investors. The long-term average for 5 year BEIRs is approximately 3%. In this respect forward-looking inflation expectations are also down from their peak >4%, but still high at 3.6%. How can advisers build in inflation resilience to portfolios To address this risk, portfolios should incorporate inflation-resilient asset classes, such as a tilt to yield within equities, and moderate exposure to liquid real assets, as well as short- to medium-term inflation-linked bonds. How can advisers find out more about investing in inflationary times? To find out more see all our Insights on inflation investing https://www.elstonsolutions.co.uk/insights/category/inflation Subscribe to our weekly newsletter to get all our insights to your inbox (for UK financial advisers only)
Watch our 2025 Outlook in full America First means continued exceptionalism The Trump administration's "America First" policy could help underpin US economic, earnings and market exceptionalism. US economic growth is outpacing the UK and EU. It benefits from higher energy prices and defence spending. American dominance of technology sector means its corporate earnings in aggregate have been more resilient, relative to the rest of world and the UK. Higher earnings growth has been rewarded with higher valuation multiples. Given the levels of market concentration, selectivity and balance within US equities remains key. Outlook for US economic growth remains robust US political and economic policy, and the performance of both its economy and its markets continue to define the global landscape. The newly-elected Republican government brings with it a strong mandate, emphasizing economic nationalism and trade protectionism. With a renewed "America First" policy framework, the outlook for US economic growth, corporate earnings and equity markets remain robust. The U.S. economy is expected to perform well in 2025, bolstered by domestic-focused policies and the competitive advantage it is afforded by an international trade environment that will be increasingly contested with Trump’s threatened tariff policy. The divergence between US and UK/European economic trajectories underscores this exceptionalism, with US economic and earnings growth accelerating while UK/European growth lags. Remapping of European energy landscape boosts US LNG Whilst the Russia-Ukraine war and related sanctions is bolstering the US Energy and Defence sectors, the remapping of European energy supply chains from piped Russian gas to shipped US LNG is an important shift from an energy security perspective, but the resulting inflation for manufacturers is hollowing out European industry - impacting the UK and Germany in particular. UK equity market valuations gap remains The much-debated focus around lower UK equity market valuations is a function of lower UK corporate earnings growth, in our view. This has been the case both over the past decade, and looking forward. Without an accelerating growth trajectory or reason for a valuation re-rating, there is a risk that the relatively lower valuations for UK equities persists. We nonetheless recommend a low-moderate UK allocation as a useful diversifier, given the UK’s declining correlation with global markets. US ecoomic growth, earnings growth, and valuation multiples have driven market growth Dominance in technology has underpinned healthy corporate earnings in the US, relative to other regions. This earnings strength has supported higher valuation multiples for US equities. Combined with favourable interest rate dynamics, this has propelled market outperformance. US continues to set the pace for global equities Over the past decade, cumulative returns for US equities have materially outpaced global and UK markets, a trend likely to persist. We have to remain alert to anything that dislocate a richly-valued US equity market: agility from a sector and factor positioning perspective can be helpful in this respect.
In our 2025 outlook, we explore our key themes for the year ahead
Subscribe to our weekly newsletter to get all our insights to your inbox (for UK financial advisers only) [5 min, read as pdf] Our 2024 Investment Review covers how the 2024 turned out relative to our Outlook. In our 2025 Investment Outlook we do not attempt to set target levels for market indices: level-specific forecasts are unhelpful and impossible to predict with certainty. Instead, we focus on the key themes that could characterise investment trends within and across asset classes and hence inform the decision-making for advisers’ investment committees we serve. The summary of our key themes for 2025 is set out below. America First: US exceptionalism to continue America First policy making will underpin US economic, earnings and market exceptionalism. US economic growth is outpacing the UK and EU. It benefits from higher energy prices and defence spending. American dominance of technology sector means its corporate earnings in aggregate have been more resilient, relative to the rest of world and the UK. Higher earnings growth has been rewarded with higher valuation multiples. Given the levels of market concentration, selectivity and balance within US equities remains key. US political and economic policy, and the performance of both its economy and its markets continue to define the global landscape. The newly-elected Republican government brings with it a strong mandate, emphasizing economic nationalism and trade protectionism. With a renewed "America First" policy framework, the outlook for US economic growth, corporate earnings and equity markets remain robust. The U.S. economy is expected to perform well in 2025, bolstered by domestic-focused policies and the competitive advantage it is afforded by an international trade environment that will be increasingly contested with Trump’s threatened tariff policy. The divergence between US and UK/European economic trajectories underscores this exceptionalism, with US economic and earnings growth accelerating while UK/European growth lags. Whilst the Russia-Ukraine war and related sanctions is bolstering the US Energy and Defence sectors, the remapping of European energy supply chains and resulting inflation for manufacturers is hollowing out European industry. The much-debated focus around lower UK equity market valuations is a function of lower UK corporate earnings growth, in our view. This has been the case both over the past decade, and looking forward. Without an accelerating growth trajectory or reason for a valuation re-rating, there is a risk that the relatively lower valuations for UK equities persists. We nonetheless recommend a low-moderate UK allocation as a useful diversifier, given the UK’s declining correlation with global markets. Dominance in technology has underpinned healthy corporate earnings in the US, relative to other regions. This earnings strength has supported higher valuation multiples for US equities. Combined with favourable interest rate dynamics, this has propelled market outperformance. Over the past decade, cumulative returns for US equities have materially outpaced global and UK markets, a trend likely to persist. We have to remain alert to anything that dislocate a richly-valued US equity market: agility from a sector and factor positioning perspective can be helpful in this respect. Debt indigestion: government debt is in fine balance Government debt is spiralling in the US and the UK. But with projected economic growth, aggregate debt levels remain (just) digestible. But any upgrade to borrowing or downgrade to growth could destabilise this fine balance and rattle the bonds market. Lower bond yields (higher bond values) mean more confidence in the bond market. Higher bond yields (lower bond values) mean less confidence in the bond market. The sustainability of government debt levels poses a significant challenge for both the US and UK. This combined, with new Governments and spending priorities increasing uncertainties. Rising interest rates have meant increased borrowing costs, putting pressure on fiscal balances. In both the UK and the US debt levels appear high in absolute times, but just manageable relative to GDP. However, any weakening in economic growth or fiscal indiscipline could destabilise this fine balance. These concerns have supported demand for gold and precious metals as Emerging Market Central Banks reduce exposure to the Dollar/US Treasury holdings. We will be monitoring new debt issuance carefully to see if the amount of government debt remains digestible without dislocating yields. Inflation: down but not dead “Zombie” inflation means it is down but not dead. Inflation is past its peak and settling at or above the 2% target which is now a “floor,” not a “cap”. Wage growth pressure, trade friction and energy market volatility means that inflation is down but not dead. Inflation has moderated from its peaks, but we believe it remains a very real risk. The 2% inflation target increasingly functions as a floor rather than a ceiling. Wage growth, energy volatility and geopolitical tensions could drive renewed inflationary pressures. To address this risk, portfolios should incorporate inflation-resilient asset classes, such as a tilt to yield within equities, and moderate exposure to liquid real assets, as well as short- to medium-term inflation-linked bonds. Asset Class Perspectives for 2025
Conclusion The three themes outlined above illustrate the forces shaping the investment landscape and asset class trends in 2025. As always, our approach emphasises an adaptive approach to navigate market risks. This does categorically mean trying to time the markets. But it does mean trying to avoid foreseeable harms along the way. Our granular asset-class recommendations are available to our clients. Henry Cobbe, CFA Head of Research, Elston Consulting [5 min read, read as pdf]
As we look forward to 2025, it is worth revisiting the themes and predictions of our 2024 outlook “turning the corner” to get a sense of what we anticipated at the time, how this informed our recommendations to UK adviser firms’ investment committees. Asset class performance for 2024 is summarised in the chart above. Our 2025 outlook is published separately. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter to get all our insights to your inbox (for UK financial advisers only) Steady as she slows In 2024, we anticipated a gradual deceleration in the U.S. economy, with markets pricing in the likelihood of a slight recession. In the event, the U.S. economy surprised on the upside. Growth forecasts were upgraded from 1.15% at the start of the year to an impressive 2.6% by year-end. This revision supported robust equity market returns and served as a reminder of the resilience of U.S. economic fundamentals. In summary, a resilient US economy defied expectations. What did we recommend to our clients at the outset and during the year? We took a balanced view between accepting concentration risk (traditional S&P 500) and diversified (active, sector exposures). We also recommended clients lean in to broader US equity corporate landscape via 1) Equal Weight and 2) US Small Caps exposures. By contrast, the UK had that shrinking feeling as regards economic growth, and although out of a technical recession, we are not confident of its prospects relative to the US. Pause before pivot At the close of 2023, we were focused on the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate hikes, noting that a rate cut was a question of when, not if. While the consensus view was that the first cut would be announced by mid-2024, we anticipated that the timing would hinge on the performance and strength of the U.S. economy. Indeed, the economy’s resilience delayed the start of what we anticipate to be a rate-cutting cycle to September 2024, when the Federal Reserve finally delivered a significant 50-basis-point cut. In fact, the eventual BoE Fed pivot came a month or two later than we had estimated at the start of the year, but we recommended our clients remain dynamic with regards to duration management. We recommended clients go strongly overweight duration in June as a good time to extend duration ahead of BoE cuts, with Fed following suit, and we saw the additional duration deliver returns on the bond side of the portfolio before attention shifted to debt supply and the UK budget later in the year, which led us to recommending to move back to neutral. The importance of portfolio resilience Our focus on resilience proved vital when it came to navigating the key macro factors in 2024: Growth, Inflation and Interest Rates. For Growth, anticipating a soft landing for the US economy, we highlighted the potential outperformance of cyclical sectors, and momentum, yield and size factors. In the event, momentum emerged as the best-performing factor, with yield and size also delivering strong returns. For Rates, we adjusted duration exposure mid-year to capture the effect of falling policy rates, aligning portfolios with a changing interest rate environment. For Inflation, which remained above target, the inclusion of liquid real assets (but to a lesser extent than in 2022) and shorter duration inflation-linked bonds, ensured continued portfolio resilience. We continue to emphasise the importance of a diversified alternatives exposure from a correlation perspective, not just in name. Our recommendation to consider Private Market Managers and Gold & Precious Metals paid off during the year – as these were the best performing asset classes for the year, outperforming world and US equities. Political and Geopolitical risks In a year of elections, we saw a change in government in the UK and in the US following Trump’s Presidential win. Both have a greater impact on bond yields and currency dynamics than equity markets, in our view. Geopolitical risks remain elevated with the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to grind, escalating conflict and contagion in the Middle East – all at tragic human cost. Conclusion Markets did indeed turn a corner in 2024, with economic growth, earnings and equity market returns outperforming expectations. With 2024 in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look ahead to 2025. Our 2025 outlook is published separately. Henry Cobbe, CFA Head of Research, Elston Consulting In this article for ETF Stream, Hoshang Daroga explores the Size Factor and why it might have a role to play in concentrated portfolios.
Read the full article Trump wins the US elections. What is the impact on the stock market?
In our latest research note for UK financial advisers, we look at:
If you are a UK financial adviser and would like our research for your investment committee, please fill in your contact details.
Trump may be divisive. But his win was decisive. What do the US Election results mean for Equities, Bonds and Alternatives?
For equities, Energy (oil), Financials (deregulation) and Industrials (defence) all fared well following the Trump win. For bonds, the focus remains policy-dependent with continued concerns over the level of US debt issuance and as to whether a Trump term will be inflationary. For alternatives, a decisive win removed some political risk in the world's larges democracy so Gold came off a touch. Listed Private Equity Managers have soared and the clear casualty is Clean Energy. If you are a UK financial adviser and would like our research for your investment committee, please fill in your contact details. What does the budget mean for pensions?
What does the budget mean for IHT What does the budget mean for the economy, market and taxes Economy: slight upgrade to growth, continued gradual moderation of inflation slightly above 2% target Markets: gilt yields rise slightly whilst digesting spending plans Taxes: a higher burden on employers and asset-rich individuals We discuss this in our research for UK advisers Contact us to get our full analysis to discuss with your clients Apply for a place at our upcoming post-Budget review conference on 13th November 2024 What is the latest outlook for growth, inflation, and interest rates?
What is the latest asset class outlook? See latest asset class performance chart Watch our quarterly outlook webinar
In the active world, is it ok to have more than one fund from one manager in a portfolio? We think there are differences for single-asset funds and multi-asset funds.
For single asset funds, one reason for not having multiple funds run by the same team is key-person risk. For multi-asset funds, the issue is less pronounced owing to team structures, but it really depends on the strategy. So when building an investment portfolio, is it ok to have more than one fund from one manager? We think it depends on the context. According to Jackie Qiao, head of fund research at Elston Consulting, key-person risk is reduced when two elements are in place. Firstly, the success of the fund relies more on the overall capability and consistency of the team rather than just one individual's influence. Secondly, the investment process needs to be “robust and disciplined”. However, there are some considerations to keep in mind. For instance, when utilizing multiple funds managed by the same team, the factors to consider differ between security selection funds and asset allocation funds. For security selection funds, it can be beneficial if the investment philosophy and approach are similar. Qiao explains, “For example, a team focusing on UK small-cap and UK small-cap value shares a lot of overlap. But if the security selection strategies vary significantly (like UK small-cap versus UK large-cap), it is less likely that there is overlap, and we could question whether the same team can manage both.” In the case of asset allocation funds, the emphasis is on multi-asset capabilities. For example, when considering a managed Equity, Bond or Alternatives allocation fund, there is a logic to having funds from the same range, that are managed by the same team to a consistent investment outlook with “broad diversification and dynamic asset allocation management.” Qiao notes that having a consistent approach across asset classes from the same team ensures a consistent outlook. “It would be unusual to have an equity fund positioned for rate hikes and a bond fund positioned for rate cuts. Therefore, a single team-based approach for asset allocation funds is more sensible than for security selection funds,” she concluded. Read the Trustnet article here featuring Elston's Jackie Qiao on key things to consider. UK equities have lagged global markets. Henry Cobbe argues that the remaining case for owning them is as for diversification, not for growth.
Read the quote in the Trustnet article Gold remains a useful diversifier because of its uncorrelated relationship with other asset classes.
As a “liquid real asset” It has inflation-protecting characteristics. Gold provides protection against geopolitical risks and insurance against market shocks. Read in full View all our Gold & Precious Metals research |
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