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Insights.

UK inflation and sterling pressure

18/5/2022

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[5 min read, open as pdf]

  • UK inflation hits 40 year high
  • Bank of England has been behind the curve
  • Sterling under pressure – how to protect against inflation
 
Inflation hits 40 year high
UK inflation figures came out today with a print of +9.0%yy (April), from +7.0% (March) and slightly below +9.1%yy consensus estimate.
This is the highest level in 40 years, putting renewed focus on the “cost of living crisis”.  Rising energy and food costs are the primary drivers, linked to the sanctions regime and the Russia/Ukraine war.
The Bank of England has been “behind the curve” as regards to inflation risk.  A look at inflation guidance contained in recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes shows.  Near-term inflation guidance has consistently under-estimated inflation since August 2021 – rising from “above 2%”, to 4%, 6%, 8%,, 9% and now 10%.
Read full article with charts
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Remapping Europe’s energy supply

9/5/2022

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[5 min read, open as pdf]
  • Weaning Europe off Russian oil & gas has become a political goal
  • For key EU economies, it could prove to be a challenge
  • The process will take time and money and will result in higher prices
 
As a result of the Russia/Ukraine war, there is a political goal to reduce European dependency on Russian oil and gas supplies and to reduce the indirect financing of the Russian economy.
We explore this topic further in conversation with Nadia Kazakova of Renaissance Energy Advisors.
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Blending liquid real assets with an equity/bond core

29/4/2022

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[5 min read, full article in pdf]
  • Bonds fail to provide diversification or protection in inflationary regime
  • Liquid real assets can improve inflationary resilience
  • For advisers using equity/bond funds, a blended approach can help
 
In theory, through 2021 we have argued that bonds would remain under pressure against the twin pressures of rising interest rates and rising inflation.  In practice, market dislocations of 1q22 evidenced this as bonds provide no place to hide in a time of market stress, and lost both their diversification and their protection characteristics.  Indeed, the losses sustained on the bond side of a traditional multi-asset equity/bond portfolio were more extreme than the losses sustained on the equity side.  The pressure on bonds will continue so long as we are in an inflationary regime.  And that may be for the medium-term (e.g. 5 or more years based on market implied inflation rates).  This is forcing a rethink for advisers reliant on equity/bond multi-asset funds to deliver a core investment strategy for their clients.  
​
[Read full article in pdf]
Find out more about our Liquid Real Assets index strategy

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Nowhere to hide: bonds provide no protection

8/4/2022

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[5 min read, open as pdf for full article]

  • All type of bond exposure showed negative returns in 1q22
  • Rising rates and inflation means bond values remain under pressure
  • Bonds are providing neither stability nor diversification
 
Equity markets endured a triple shock in the first quarter of 2022: a dramatic steepening of the likely path of interests, multi-year high inflation levels and a horrific war unleased in Ukraine.
The traditional rational for including nominal bonds was to provide steady income, lower but positive returns, and diversification – a place of safety in periods of market stress.
In face of rising inflation and rising interest rates, nominal bonds are providing none of these portfolio functions.
Indeed in 1q22 not a single bond exposure delivered positive returns, and over 12 months only inflation-linked exposures delivered positive returns.

 Open as pdf for full article
​CPD Webinar Alternatives to Bonds in a Portfolio

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Inflation revisited: lessons from the 1970s

25/3/2022

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[5 min read, open as pdf]

  • Inflation should moderate in the long-term
  • Current circumstances are different to the 1970s
  • The focus should be normalising rates and supporting growth
 
In a recent CPD webinar, Elston’s Henry Cobbe interviewed Patrick Minford, Professor of Applied Economics at Cardiff University and economic adviser to Margaret Thatcher in the late 1970s and early 1980s to ask about the fight with inflation in the 1970s and any comparisons for today.
 
While it is tempting to look for similarities with the energy shock and period of sustained inflation that the UK suffered in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Professor Minford highlighted some significant differences.  The lower risk of a wage-price spiral, central bank independence and a track record of manging inflation means lower risk of inflation getting out of control in the long-term.  But the short- to medium-term remains under pressure.  In Minford’s opinion, the risk to the growth is the bigger risk: and this would be the right time for HM Treasury to worry less about debt ratios, and turn on Government spending taps.

Read full article, open as pdf
Watch the CPD webinar (50mins)

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Living with inflation, holding real assets

11/3/2022

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[5 min read, open as pdf]

  • Nominal bonds suffer in an inflationary regime
  • Real assets provide resilience, but are more volatile
  • Market-implied rates suggest inflation is here to stay for the medium-term
 
Nominal bonds suffer in an inflationary regime.  Real assets provide resilience in an inflationary regime, but have higher volatility.  Our Liquid Real Assets index combines rate-sensitive assets and inflation-sensitive assets to capture real asset return patterns, with bond-like volatility.

Underlying exposures to Gold, Energy, Precious Metals, Agriculture and Industrial Metals have all driven performance of the index year-to-date.  The Liquid Real Assets index has outperformed gilts by 8.91ppt with similar risk characteristics.

Portfolio managers and advisers who are looking to 1) reduce or remove nominal bond exposure, 2) want real asset exposure for inflation protection, and 3) want to maintain volatility budget can consider a lower-risk real assets strategy as an alternative.

For full article with charts, open as pdf
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using ETFs to build-in inflation protection

11/3/2022

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[5 min read, open as pdf]
​
  • Equities provide a long-term inflation hedge
  • But other asset classes provide near- and medium-term protection
  • “Owning the problem” is a useful framework for inflation hedging

Even before the Russia/Ukraine war and sanctions, Covid policy stimulus, rapidity of the post-Covid restart, supply-chain disruptions and the energy crisis have stoked up inflationary pressure and we are in for a bumpy ride.
While we are not yet past the peak, it takes years, not months, to tame inflation, so it makes sense to adapt portfolios for an inflationary regime.
To understand asset class behaviour there is not much use looking at the last 10 or 20 years.  That era has been characterised by falling interest rates and low inflation. Instead we have to go back to the history books and understand how asset classes behaved in the 1970s inflation shock and the subsequent period of rising interest rates and rising inflation.
From studying academic research on that era, we draw three key conclusions: firstly, inflation protection can be achieved by owning the assets that benefit, rather than suffer, from inflation.  Secondly, that different asset classes have different inflation-protective qualities over time.  Finally, that liquidity is key so that there is flexibility to alter and adjust your portfolio.
​
Equities: the long-term inflation hedge
Equities provide the ultimate “long-term” inflation hedge – companies that make things that you always need and have pricing power can keep pace with or beat inflation.
Within equities, studies show that a bias towards value, away from growth, outperforms during an inflationary regime.  This is because of something known as “equity duration”, which basically means that companies that deliver earnings and dividends on a “jam today” basis, are more valuable than companies that are expected to deliver earnings and dividends in the very distant future on a “jam tomorrow” basis.  You can access a Value ETF very simply by using factor-based ETFs, such as IWFV (iShares Edge MSCI World Value Factor UCITS ETF).
But given that investors are likely to have equities in their portfolios already and therefore have long-term protection in place, how do you achieve inflation-protection for the bumpy ride over the short- and medium-term?
 
Owning the problem
Inflation-hedging can be described as “owning the problem”.  Worried about rising oil, gas and petrol prices?  Own an Energy ETP like AIGE (WisdomTree Energy ETP).  Worried about rising wheat prices?  Own an Agriculture ETP like AIGA (WisdomTree Agriculture ETP).  Worried about rising rail-fares? Own an infrastructure ETF like GIN (SPDR Morningstar Multi-Asset Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF).  Worried about rising rents? Own a property ETF like IWDP (iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITS ETF).  Worried about rising household bills? Own a Utilities ETF like UTIW (Lyxor MSCI World Utilities TR UCITS ETF).
By owning the assets that benefit, rather than suffer, from inflation, you can incorporate inflation-protection into your portfolio.
These assets are referred to as “liquid real assets” as their value is positively related to inflation.  They can be accessed in liquid format by using exchange traded products (ETPs) keeping your portfolio flexible to enable future adjustments as time goes on.
Interestingly, real assets respond to inflation in different ways over different time frames.  The study from the 1970s looked at the correlation of asset classes over time from the start of an inflation shock.  It found that Commodities provided near-term inflation protection for the initial five or so years of inflation shock, but then moderated as supply-side solutions came-through.  Infrastructure and Property provided medium- to long-term inflation protection but were vulnerable in the near-term to rising market risk associated with the break-out of inflation.  Inflation-linked bonds – as the name suggests – provide inflation protection, if held to maturity.  But in the short-term they can decline materially, as they are highly sensitive to increases in interest rates which are typically associated with inflation-fighting central bank policy.  So while inflation-linked bonds like INXG (iShares GBP Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF) reduce inflation risk, they increase interest rate risk.  By introducing some interest-rate hedging by owning assets whose interest rates go up when the Fed raises rates, like with FLOS (iShares USD Floating Rate Bond UCITS ETF GBP Hedged), this can be mitigated.

Gold
Gold is also a traditional real asset inflation-hedge: it preserves its value (purchasing power) over millennia, and is a classic “risk off” asset that can help protect a portfolio in times of market stress.  Some critics of holding physical gold argue that is produces no income and therefore has no intrinsic value or growth.  That may be so, but imagine you were a time-traveller – it’s the only money that you could use in any era going back to biblical times.  It holds its value in inflationary and even in hyperinflationary times.  From a portfolio perspective, it always makes sense to have some exposure both as a real asset, a shock-absorber and as an uncorrelated diversifier.  Physical gold tends to outperform gold miners, in the long-run, and can be accessed at lower cost.  There are plenty of low-cost physical gold ETPs to choose from.
 
Bringing it all together
We believe that a layered approach to inflation-hedging makes sense because of the different inflation-protection qualities of different asset classes over time.
Within equities this means pivoting equity exposure towards a Value/Income bias.
Within bonds, this means reducing duration and/or substituting nominal bonds with liquid real assets exposure as a potential alternative (subject to relevant risk controls).
We have incorporated a range of higher risk inflation-protective asset classes, such as commodities, gold, infrastructure and property, medium-risk like lower duration inflation-linked bonds and lower risk rate-sensitive assets, such as floating rate notes to create a diversified Liquid Real Assets Index strategy that aims to deliver exposure to inflation-protective asset classes, while delivering an overall portfolio volatility similar to Gilts.  This makes the strategy a potential alternative to traditional (nominal) bonds exposure that will continue to struggle in an inflationary regime.

Summary
For those wishing to isolate and target specific inflation-protective exposures, there is no shortage of choice for highly targeted inflation-hedging strategies.
Adapting portfolios for inflation is key to ensure resilience in an inflationary regime.  And while it may feel a bit late to get started, it’s better late than never.

​Find out more about our All-Weather Portfolio of ETFs for UK investors.
Find out more about our Permanent Portfolio of ETFs for UK investors.
See all our Research Portfolios

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Building an all-weather portfolio with ETFs

4/3/2022

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[5 min read, open as pdf]

Find out more on this topic in our upcoing CPD webinar

  • 60/40 portfolios are under pressure with rising rates and inflation
  • An Equal Risk “all-weather” portfolio provides true diversification
  • An Equal Weight “permanent” portfolio provides resilience
 
For investors with long time horizons who want an all-equity portfolio, there is no shortage of low- cost global equity ETFs.  In cricketing terms, when sunshine’s guaranteed, a grass pitch works just fine.
But when time horizons are shorter and risk control matters more – as in these uncertain times - a multi-asset approach might make better sense.  Put differently, when the weather is changeable or extreme, an all-weather pitch makes more sense.
It’s the same for investments.  In these times of market volatility, rising interest rates and inflation pressure, we explore three different types of multi-asset strategy: the 60/40 portfolio, the “Equal Risk” or all-weather portfolio, and the “Equal Weight” or Permanent Portfolio.

The problem with 60/40
The traditional multi-asset portfolio is the so-called “60/40” portfolio – where 60% is invested in equities, and 40% is invested in bonds.  This is the “classic” multi-asset strategy.  The idea being that you can combine higher risk and return from equities with lower risk income from bonds.  A 60/40 portfolio can be constructed with just two ETFs.  60% in a global equity ETF like SSAC (iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF) or VWRP (Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF); and 40% in a bond ETF – for example AGBP (iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF GBP hedged) for those wanting global bond (hedged to GBP) exposure, or IGLT (iShares Core UK Gilts UCITS ETF) for those wanting UK government bond exposure.  Or you can make it more and more granular.
But this traditional 60/40 model is under pressure, and the suggestion currently is that the 60/40 portfolio is now “dead”.  Why is this?  Well because for the last 30 years or so, we’ve lived in a world where inflation and interest rates have been trending down – which is doubly good for bonds.  But now we are now in an economic regime where both interest rates and inflation are starting to trend up – which is doubly bad for bonds. 
The other problem with 60/40, is that in times of market stress, the correlation between equities and bonds increases, meaning that bonds lack the diversifying power they may have had in the historical long-run, at a time when it is needed most.
In summary: the advantage of this approach a 60/40 portfolio is easy to construct, and is a classic “balanced” portfolio.  The disadvantage of this approach is that bonds are facing an uphill struggle for the next few years, so may not be as “balanced” as you would want.

The all-weather portfolio
The all-weather portfolio concept is that of a multi-asset portfolio that is designed to deliver resilient, consistent performance in different market regimes, or “whatever the weather”.  The term and idea was pioneered by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates (which was established in 1974, shortly after Nixon took the US Dollar off the gold standard) and is designed to answer the question: “What kind of investment portfolio would you hold that would perform well across all environments, be it a devaluation or something completely different?”[1].  Dalio and Bridgewater’s all-weather portfolio assumes equal odds of any of four market regimes (rising/falling growth/inflation) prevailing at any time.  This approach created and pioneered what is also referred to as a “Risk Parity” approach to investing.
The concept of risk parity requires some additional explanation.  A classic 60/40 equity/bond allocation results in a portfolio where over 95% of overall portfolio risk comes from the equity position, and the balance comes from the bond position.  In short, the asset allocation drives portfolio risk, and while a portfolio may be balanced in terms of asset allocation, it is imbalanced in terms of risk allocation.  Risk parity reverses the maths: it means that each asset class contributes equally to the overall risk of a portfolio.  This is why it is also known as an “Equal Risk” approach.  But as risk is dynamic, not stable, the asset weights must adapt to keep the risk allocation stable.
UK investors can build their own all-weather portfolio using four to six ETFs representing broad asset classes: global equities, UK equities, gilts, property, gold and cash equivalent, depending on complexity.  In order to keep the risk allocation stable, the asset weights might need to change each month to reflect the changing risk and correlation relationships of and between those asset classes. 
In summary: the advantage of this Equal Risk approach is that a portfolio is truly diversified from a risk contribution perspective.  The disadvantage of this approach is it requires a regular change of weights to reflect changing short-term volatilities and correlations.

The Permanent Portfolio
The permanent portfolio is a concept pioneered by the late Harry Browne, a US financial adviser, in his 1999 book “Fail-Safe Investing”.  It has many adherents in both the US and the UK, but to date it is only really in the US that one can find ‘Permanent Portfolios’ on offer, something UK investors seem keen to change. 
The concept is similar to the all-weather portfolio, but in a more straightforward format.  Rather than trying to target an “Equal Risk” contribution with changing asset-class weights, the Permanent Portfolio is a simple Equal Weight approach to four main asset classes to reflect different market regimes, so that whatever the regime, the portfolio has got it covered.
Browne outlines four market regimes[2], and related asset exposure for that regime:
  1. Prosperity: growing economy, falling rates: equities (and also bonds) are best assets to hold
  2. Inflation: inflation is rising moderately, rapidly or at a runaway rate: gold is best asset to hold
  3. Tight money or recession: slowing money supply and recession: cash (or equivalent) is best asset to hold
  4. Deflation: prices decline and purchasing power of money grows: bonds are best asset to hold
An equal-weight portfolio therefore consists of 25% equities, 25% bonds, 25% gold and 25% cash (or cash equivalents to earn some interest).  Browne advocates reviewing this portfolio once per annum, and if necessary rebalancing the allocations to their strategic equal weights.
US versions of this strategy use US equities for the equity exposure and US treasuries for the bond exposure.  So what would a UK version look like?
We constructed a Permanent Portfolio for UK investors using 4 London listed ETFs: SSAC for global equities, IGLT for UK bonds, SGLN (iShares Physical Gold ETC) for gold and ERNS (iShares GBP Ultrashort Bond UCITS ETF) for cash equivalents for some additional yield over cash that will capture rising interest rates.
In summary: the advantage of this Equal Weight approach is its simplicity and low-level of maintenance required.  The disadvantage of this approach is that it disregards short-run changes in volatility and correlation that are captured in the Equal Risk approach.

How do they all compare?
Obviously the strategies vary from each other.  To evaluate performance, we have created research portfolios for both these strategies. What becomes apparent is that the outperformance of these low-cost, equal-risk and equal-weight all-weather and permanent portfolios looks relatively attractive when set against many more complex (and expensive) “all-weather” absolute return funds.

Find out more about our All-Weather Portfolio of ETFs for UK investors.
Find out more about our Permanent Portfolio of ETFs for UK investors.
See all our Research Portfolios
Attend our CPD webinar on this topic

[1] https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/the-all-weather-story
[2] Harry Browne, Fail-Safe Investing, (1999) Rule #11 Build a bullet-proof portfolio for protection (pp.38-49)
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Liquid real assets index performance udpate (FEb-22)

2/3/2022

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[1 min read, open as pdf]
  • Exposure to inflation-sensitive assets drives performance
  • The strategy is keeping pace with inflation
  • The strategy is outperforming gilts with similar volatility
 
We take a brief look at the performance update for our Liquid Real Assets Index.  Exposure to Energy and broader commodities, as well as Gold & Precious Metals is supporting performance.
The strategy is keeping pace with inflation, and outperforming gilts in the long-run and year-to-date, with similar level of volatility.  Gilts are now underperforming inflation since index inception (Dec-17).  Full updates are provided quarterly.

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War in UKRAINE: SANCTIONS, ENERGY & INFLATION

25/2/2022

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[5 min read, full article in pdf]

  • Russia/Ukrainian conflict unleashes a European tragedy
  • What does it mean for markets
  • Focus on energy supply and associated risk to growth and inflation
 
This war unleashes a European tragedy.  In this insight, we outline what this far larger war means for Ukraine and Europe, how it could potentially stop, the impact on markets – with a focus on energy supply and associated risks to growth and inflation – and finally on portfolio positioning.

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Adapting portfolios for inflation

4/2/2022

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[5 min read, open as pdf]

In our 2022 outlook, we explained why inflation will remain hotter for longer and will settle above pre-pandemic levels.  Advisers should consider how to adapt portfolios for inflation across each asset class – equities, bonds and alternatives.  Research demonstrates how different asset classes exhibit different degrees of inflation protection over different time-frames.  Equities therefore provide a long-term inflation hedge.
  • Short- to Medium-term:    rate-sensitive assets, commodities
  • Medium- to Long-term:     real estate, equities and inflation-linked
  • Long-term                             equities

In this article, we explore how to adapt portfolios for inflation within and across each asset class: Equities, Bonds and Alternatives.

For full article, read as pdf
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Bitcoin: the first trillion dollar wipe out

21/1/2022

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[5 min read, open as pdf]
  • Bitcoin is not an appropriate asset for retail portfolios
  • It is an instrument for speculation, with no intrinsic value
  • Understanding a bubble is possible.  Timing its end is not.
 
A great technology, an inappropriate asset
In discussions with financial advisers, our position has consistently been that whilst blockchain is undoubtedly a breakthrough technology, Bitcoin is not an appropriate asset for retail investors’ portfolios.

​Read the full report in pdf
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2022 outlook: key themes

11/1/2022

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[3 min read,  open as pdf]
​
  • Adapting portfolios for inflation
  • Income generation in a negative real yield world
  • Positioning portfolios for climate transition
 
2021 in review
Our 2021 market roundup summarises another strong year for markets in almost all asset classes except for Bonds which remain under pressure as interest rates are expected to rise and inflation ticks up.
Listed private equity (shares in private equity managers) performed best at +43.08%yy in GBP terms.  US was the best performing region at +30.06%.
Real asset exposures, such as Water, Commodities and Timber continued to rally in face of rising inflation risk, returning +32.81%, +28.22% and +17.66% respectively.

2022 outlook
We are continuing in this “curiouser, through-the-looking glass” world.  Traditionally you bought bonds for income, and equity for risk.  Now it’s the other way round.
Only equities provide income yields that have the potential to keep ahead of inflation.  Bonds carry increasing risk of loss in real terms as inflation and interest rates rise.
Real yields, which are bond yields less the inflation rate, are negative making traditional Bonds which aren’t linked to inflation highly unattractive.  Bonds that are linked to inflation are highly sensitive to rising interest rates (called duration risk), so are not attractive either.
How to navigate markets in this context?
The big three themes for the year ahead are, in our view:
  1. Adapting portfolios for inflation
  2. Income generation in a negative real yield world
  3. Positioning portfolios for climate transition
We explore each in turn, as well as reviewing updated Capital Market Assumptions for expected returns from different asset classes.

See full report in pdf
Attend our 2022 Outlook webinar
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Liquid real assets delivers on objectives in 2021

7/1/2022

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[3 min read, open pdf for full report with charts]

  • Inflation is on the rise
  • Delivering real asset exposure, with bond-like volatility
  • Real assets have the potential to keep ahead of inflation
 
Inflation on the rise
With inflation on the rise – and potentially interest rates too – nominal bonds are likely to remain under pressure.  Whilst “real assets” – such as property, infrastructure and gold – have potential to preserve value in inflationary regimes, how can a switch from bonds to real assets be made without materially up-risking portfolios?  This was the challenge we addressed in the design of our Liquid Real Assets index.
Our Liquid Real Assets Index was developed to combine exposure to higher risk-return real asset exposures, with lower risk-return interest rate-sensitive assets, to deliver a real asset return exposure for inflation protection, in liquid format, with bond-like volatility to keep risk budgets in check.  Given the rising inflationary pressures both in the US and in the UK, we take stock on the index performance year-to-date and are glad to say it’s “doing what it says on the tin.

Find out more about the Elston Liquid Real Assets Index
Watch the introductory webinar
View the year-end index factsheet
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2021 performance by asset class

6/1/2022

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[3 min read, open as pdf]

  • Sustained recovery in risk assets
  • Real assets to the fore
  • Inflation focus drives UK equity income strength
 
Sustained recovery in risk assets
2021 saw a sustained recovery in risk assets, with the exception of Emerging Markets.  Listed Private Equity was the top performing exposure returning +43.08% in GBP terms.
Regionally, US equities remained the strongest performing market +30.06%.

Real assets to the fore
Real asset exposures, such as Water, Commodities and Timber continued to rally in face of rising inflation risk, returning +32.81%, +28.22% and +17.66% respectively.
Our Liquid Real Assets Index (ticker ELSLRA Index) – which combines higher risk real assets and lower risk rate-sensitive assets to deliver volatility similar to bonds – returned +7.98%, whilst UK Gilts declined -5.16%.

UK equity income strength
Within UK equity market segments, UK Equity Income outperformed all other segments as inflation fears made income-generative, value-oriented shares relatively more attractive.  UK Equity Income, represented by our Freedom Smart Beta UK Dividend Index (ticker ELSUKI Index), returned +20.77%, whilst UK Large Cap returned +19.68% and UK Core returned +18.44%.  UK Small Cap was the weakest UK segment, returning +14.70% for the year.

Read as pdf
Register for our Quarterly Investment Outlook on 26 January 2022
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UK inflation and rates tightening

16/12/2021

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 [7 min read, open as pdf]
  • US Fed signalled tightening, but markets expectations were ready
  • UK inflation hits 11 year high and could remain at ~5% through 2022
  • Bank of England raises rates +15bp to 0.25% to avoid “inaction”

Fed signals tightening
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that inflation is now the biggest risk to growth, and getting the labour market back to pre-pandemic levels.

The US will accelerate “tapering” or reduction of supportive asset purchases, and set out the potential for rate hikes in coming years (although no change in long-term target rate).

And despite rate hikes usually spooking markets, markets rallied: why? Because the bigger concern was that the Fed was behind the curve and not getting on top of inflation.  The risk of a so-called “policy error” had investors concerned. 

The fact that market-implied policy rates did not change before and after the policy announcement, suggests that this was a case of the Fed catching up with the market, than the market catching up with the Fed.

UK inflation
Meanwhile, UK inflation pressure continues, with November inflation data coming in at +5.1%yy, ahead of +4.8%yy forecast, the fastest rate in a decade.  Transport, clothing and food were the main contributors.

The risk is that inflation creeps into wage growth which would make it harder to bring inflation down to long-term target of 2.0%.  This is the second month in a row of an upside surprise.  The figure is also at the upper end of scenarios envisaged by the Bank of England at the November MPC meeting.

Bank of England raises rates
The Bank of England today announced a +0.15% increase in the Bank Rate from 0.10% to 0.25% citing “more persistent” inflation, and following the Fed’s lead in a greater level of tightening.

Furthermore, the Bank of England minutes suggest that inflation could remain at elevated levels and “expect inflation to remain around 5% through the majority of the winter period, and to peak at around 6% in April 2022”

Markets are pricing a 80% chance of a further +0.25% to 0.50% in February 2022.  In October, BoE Governor, Andrew Bailey guided that rates would need to rise to address inflation.

Where are breakeven rates?
The UK 5 year breakeven rate is at 4.38%, following the announcement, compared to 4.66% at the end of last week.  The US 5 year breakeven rate is at 2.73% today from 2.80% at the end of last week.

Liquid Real Assets performance
Our Liquid Real Assets Index combines exposure to higher risk-return real assets for inflation protection and lower risk-return rate-sensitive assets for interest rate hike protection for an overall volatility that is comparable to UK bonds.  By incorporating allocations to exposures that are driving inflation, such as Commodities, or can pass-through inflation, such as Property and Infrastructure, the real assets index can provide a return premium in excess of inflation and in excess of nominal bonds.

Summary
Inflation is proving persistent, policy makers are catching up to keep it in check.  Nominal bonds will remain under pressure, particularly longer-duration in a rising inflation, rising interest rate environment.
We advocate pairing equity allocations with diversified real asset exposure that can respond to inflation and floating rate notes that can respond to interest rate hikes.

Read full article with charts as pdf
Register for our Quarterly Investment Outlook on 26 January 2022

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LIQUID real assets performance update

22/11/2021

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  • Inflation is on the rise
  • Delivering real asset exposure, with bond-like volatility
  • Real assets have the potential to keep ahead of inflation
 
Inflation on the rise
With inflation on the rise – and potentially interest rates too – nominal bonds are likely to remain under pressure.  Whilst “real assets” – such as property, infrastructure and gold – have potential to preserve value in inflationary regimes, how can a switch from bonds to real assets be made without materially up-risking portfolios?  This was the challenge we addressed in the design of our Liquid Real Assets index.
Our Liquid Real Assets Index was developed to combine exposure to higher risk-return real asset exposures, with lower risk-return interest rate-sensitive assets, to deliver a real asset return exposure for inflation protection, in liquid format, with bond-like volatility to keep risk budgets in check.  Given the rising inflationary pressures both in the US (where in Oct-21 it crossed 6%, the highest level in 30 years) and in the UK (where in Oct-21 it crossed 4%, the highest level in a decade), we take stock on the index performance year-to-date and are glad to say it’s “doing what it says on the tin.

[Read full article]
​[Watch the webinar]

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UK inflation reaches 4.2% yy (Oct-21)

18/11/2021

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Picture
[3 min read, open as pdf]

  • UK inflation reaches 4.2%yy in October
  • Ahead of 3.9%yy estimate, and +3.1%yy in September
  • Bank of England expects peak of +5% in April 2022
 
Ahead of estimates
UK CPI print for October came in at 4.2%yy vs 3.9% estimate and 3.1%yy in September.
Inflation rates were higher than expected and the highest in a decade, putting more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates and creating a palpable squeeze on cost of living for households through the winter.  The increase was driven by energy prices and the impact of supply shortages across the economy. 
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The Big Squeeze: inflationary pressure persists

8/10/2021

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Picture
  • Inflationary pressure is looking more persistent than transitory
  • Passing the “peak” does not help
  • Portfolio interventions for consideration

Read the article in full (5 min read)

Following the post-COVID restart, there would necessarily be an inflationary spike, from base effects alone.  Central Banks’ core thesis was that this spike would be “transitory”, rather than “persistent”. 
However, the combination of pent-up demand, supply chain disruptions and an energy crisis suggests that inflation could prove more persistent than transitory.
We look at the numbers and how this informs the “big picture triangle” of three key macro factors: growth, inflation and interest rates.
Finally, we outlined potential interventions in portfolio positioning from an asset allocation perspective.  Nominal bonds are known to be structurally challenged in an inflationary regime, and propose real asset exposure instead.  Within equities, we would propose an income/value bias.

Regiser for our 3q21 Review & Outlook: The Big Squeeze

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US CPI: moderates from +5.4% (July) to 5.3% (August)

14/9/2021

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Picture
[3 min read, open as pdf] 
  • US inflation numbers moderate
  • Headline rates decline from +5.4%yy to +5.3%yy
  • Focus on growth outlook

US inflation moderates
US CPI moderated from +5.4% to +5.3% y/y, whilst Core PCI (excluding energy and food) moderated from +4.3%yy to +4.0%yy.

Full article in pdf
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