Asset Allocation Research for UK Advisers

​In 2024, Private Market Managers was one of the best performing asset classes, returning +31.7%, compared to +17.3% for World Equities, both in GBP terms.

[5 min read, read as pdf]
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• The US economy outperformed expectations
• The long-awaited pivot came through
• Portfolio resilience proved key

As we look forward to 2025, it is worth revisiting the themes and predictions of our 2024 outlook “turning the corner” to get a sense of what we anticipated at the time, how this informed our recommendations to UK adviser firms’ investment committees.  Asset class performance for 2024 is summarised in the chart above.  Our 2025 outlook is published separately.
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Steady as she slows
In 2024, we anticipated a gradual deceleration in the U.S. economy, with markets pricing in the likelihood of a slight recession. In the event, the U.S. economy surprised on the upside. Growth forecasts were upgraded from 1.15% at the start of the year to an impressive 2.6% by year-end. This revision supported robust equity market returns and served as a reminder of the resilience of U.S. economic fundamentals.  In summary, a resilient US economy defied expectations.
What did we recommend to our clients at the outset and during the year? We took a balanced view between accepting concentration risk (traditional S&P 500) and diversified (active, sector exposures).  We also recommended clients lean in to broader US equity corporate landscape via 1) Equal Weight and 2) US Small Caps exposures.
By contrast, the UK had that shrinking feeling as regards economic growth, and although out of a technical recession, we are not confident of its prospects relative to the US.

Pause before pivot
At the close of 2023, we were focused on the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate hikes, noting that a rate cut was a question of when, not if. While the consensus view was that the first cut would be announced by mid-2024, we anticipated that the timing would hinge on the performance and strength of the U.S. economy. Indeed, the economy’s resilience delayed the start of what we anticipate to be a rate-cutting cycle to September 2024, when the Federal Reserve finally delivered a significant 50-basis-point cut.
In fact, the eventual BoE Fed pivot came a month or two later than we had estimated at the start of the year, but we recommended our clients remain dynamic with regards to duration management.  We recommended clients go strongly overweight duration in June as a good time to extend duration ahead of BoE cuts, with Fed following suit, and we saw the additional duration deliver returns on the bond side of the portfolio before attention shifted to debt supply and the UK budget later in the year, which led us to recommending to move back to neutral.

The importance of portfolio resilience
Our focus on resilience proved vital when it came to navigating the key macro factors in 2024: Growth, Inflation and Interest Rates.
For Growth, anticipating a soft landing for the US economy, we highlighted the potential outperformance of cyclical sectors, and momentum, yield and size factors. In the event, momentum emerged as the best-performing factor, with yield and size also delivering strong returns. For Rates, we adjusted duration exposure mid-year to capture the effect of falling policy rates, aligning portfolios with a changing interest rate environment. For Inflation, which remained above target, the inclusion of liquid real assets (but to a lesser extent than in 2022) and shorter duration inflation-linked bonds, ensured continued portfolio resilience.  We continue to emphasise the importance of a diversified alternatives exposure from a correlation perspective, not just in name.
Our recommendation to consider Private Market Managers and Gold & Precious Metals paid off during the year – as these were the best performing asset classes for the year, outperforming world and US equities.

Political and Geopolitical risks
In a year of elections, we saw a change in government in the UK and in the US following Trump’s Presidential win.  Both have a greater impact on bond yields and currency dynamics than equity markets, in our view.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated with the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to grind, escalating conflict and contagion in the Middle East – all at tragic human cost.

Conclusion
Markets did indeed turn a corner in 2024, with economic growth, earnings and equity market returns outperforming expectations.  With 2024 in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look ahead to 2025.  Our 2025 outlook is published separately.

Henry Cobbe, CFA
Head of Research, Elston Consulting

[3 min read, open as pdf]

• The pursuit of yield pre-2021 was supportive for private equity
• Conditions are now hostile on a number of fronts
• Lack of demand prompts a meaningful discount to NAV

Read the full article

[5 min read, open as pdf]

• Private Market Managers’ valuations hit in 2022 on rising rates
• Sustained asset growth to 2030E supports positive outlook
• Highly sensitive to US interest rate expectations 

[5 min read, open as pdf]

• Good in theory, problematic in practice
• Advantages and disadvantages
• Changing market regime

There is an investment case for investing in private markets, and the asset class has proved popular with institutional investors, including those with long-term time horizons and high liquidity tolerance – such as endowments.  But not every endowment has enjoyed the success of the early adopters under the “Swensen model”.
A private market allocation is structurally hard to reverse if things go wrong with any of 1) the investor’s liquidity needs, 2) the private market fund’s underlying investments, or 3) the realised returns relative to risk-free investments (e.g. gilts) for a given term.
As such, an allocation to private markets should be seen more like an irreversible decision, unlike almost all other investments available to institutional investors which can be sold at a day, week or month’s notice.
In this brief note, we do not set out the case for investing in private markets – that has been set out extensively elsewhere.  We do however raise some points of challenge to those stated advantages.
[Read full paper as pdf]

[3 min read, open as pdf]

• Private market managers continue to deliver a return premium
• Owning managers’ shares provides liquid access
• Growing levels of forecast AUM in private markets fuels growth

Evaluating private market performance
Estimating the “illiquidity premium” of private markets versus public markets is complex and cannot be done using public data.
As an alternative we focus on the returns premium of private market managers to public markets.
By comparing the performance of listed private market managers (whose shares are publicly traded) to a mainstream public markets benchmark, we can get a picture of the liquid return premium of the sector as a whole, relative to public markets.

Read the article in full as pdf
Watch the CPD webinar on this topic

[5 min read, open as pdf]

In our 2022 outlook, we explained why inflation will remain hotter for longer and will settle above pre-pandemic levels.  Advisers should consider how to adapt portfolios for inflation across each asset class – equities, bonds and alternatives.  Research demonstrates how different asset classes exhibit different degrees of inflation protection over different time-frames.  Equities therefore provide a long-term inflation hedge.

• Short- to Medium-term:    rate-sensitive assets, commodities

• Medium- to Long-term:     real estate, equities and inflation-linked
• Long-term                             equities

In this article, we explore how to adapt portfolios for inflation within and across each asset class: Equities, Bonds and Alternatives.

For full article, read as pdf

The illiquidity premium is the additional rewarded risk associated with holding an illiquid investment.

One of the attractions of private markets relative to public markets is the trade-off between enhanced returns and reduced liquidity, known as the “illiquidity premium”. Private market deals often require investors’ money to be “locked up” (i.e. non-realisable and cannot be withdrawn) for anything up to ten years. By way of compensation, investors’ should enjoy potentially much higher rates of return.

In the chart, we contrast the long-term expected returns, and range of returns, for US private equity vs a proxy for public equity and US private debt vs a proxy for US corporate bonds.  Whilst the potential for returns is clearly higher, the range of potential outcomes is much higher too, reflecting the higher risk-reward trade off.

Contrasting public market and private market expected & variability of returns reflects their different characteristics, risks and opportunities.

Request our Access to Private Markets white paper
Register for our Introduction to Private Markets webinar

[3 min read]

​Private markets exposure is growing in terms of both assets and popularity and offers potential for “true active” returns.  We explore why and how advisers get access to this trend.
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Why private markets are in demand
Private markets – incorporating private equity, private debt (direct lending), private real estate, unlisted infrastructure, unlisted natural resources – are characterised by attributes traditionally at odds with retail investing. Opacity, illiquidity, lengthy lock-up periods to name a few, and for that reason have largely been the domain of the institutional investor. But the growth in volume of private market strategies has become hard to ignore, as have the increasingly eye-watering returns enjoyed by private market managers.
Overall private market AUM has increased from US$2.7tr in 2010 to US$7.2tr in 2020 and is expected to grow to US$12.9tr by 2025[1], with the majority of this in private equity.

How can advisers access private market trends for their clients?
In our white paper, we explore:

• Why private markets are in demand
• The "illiquidity premium"
• How to access to private markets exposure

Request our Access to Private Markets white paper
Register for our Introduction to Private Markets webinar

[1] Preqin estimates, 2021