2022 outlook: key themes

[3 min read,  open as pdf]
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• Adapting portfolios for inflation
• Income generation in a negative real yield world
• Positioning portfolios for climate transition

 
2021 in review
Our 2021 market roundup summarises another strong year for markets in almost all asset classes except for Bonds which remain under pressure as interest rates are expected to rise and inflation ticks up.
Listed private equity (shares in private equity managers) performed best at +43.08%yy in GBP terms.  US was the best performing region at +30.06%.
Real asset exposures, such as Water, Commodities and Timber continued to rally in face of rising inflation risk, returning +32.81%, +28.22% and +17.66% respectively.

2022 outlook
We are continuing in this “curiouser, through-the-looking glass” world.  Traditionally you bought bonds for income, and equity for risk.  Now it’s the other way round.
Only equities provide income yields that have the potential to keep ahead of inflation.  Bonds carry increasing risk of loss in real terms as inflation and interest rates rise.
Real yields, which are bond yields less the inflation rate, are negative making traditional Bonds which aren’t linked to inflation highly unattractive.  Bonds that are linked to inflation are highly sensitive to rising interest rates (called duration risk), so are not attractive either.
How to navigate markets in this context?
The big three themes for the year ahead are, in our view:

1. Adapting portfolios for inflation
2. Income generation in a negative real yield world
3. Positioning portfolios for climate transition

We explore each in turn, as well as reviewing updated Capital Market Assumptions for expected returns from different asset classes.

See full report in pdf
Attend our 2022 Outlook webinar