分类: Macro

UK equities: a useful diversifier

16/8/2024

[5 min read, open as pdf]

UK and US performance differential has been extreme
UK wealth managers have progressively reduced “home bias”
But UK equities are now a useful diversifier

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UK rate cuts: duration delivers

16/8/2024

Bank of England rates peaked at 5.25%
As interest rates decline, bond values increase
Longer duration bonds deliver in a falling rate regime

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market shake-out: what is going on?

5/8/2024

[5 min read, open as pdf]

Weak payroll data raised fears around recession
Tech sector concentration led the way up – and down
After a prolonged absence, volatility has returned

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Explaining reinvestment risk

26/7/2024

[5 min read, open as pdf]

Interest rates have peaked in the UK
As interest rates fall, so do risk-free returns
Opportunity costs also potentially increase

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UK elections - changes ahead

28/6/2024

Labour likely to win the election
Tax rises inevitable with either party
No impact on global equities, marginal positive for Sterling

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UK elections: outlook for gilts and sterling

22/5/2024

[5 min read, as pdf]

UK elections have no impact on global equity markets
UK economic outlook impacts UK mid- and small-caps
Change of Government could impact outlook for Gilts and Sterling

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UK house prices: turning a corner?

19/2/2024

[5 min read, open as pdf]

UK house price declines coincided with recession data
Mortgage market is easing with prospect of falling interest rates
House prices have report first uptick since July 2023

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UK Growth: that shrinking feeling

19/2/2024

[5 min, open as pdf]

The UK slid into recession in 2023
A tricky balancing act for the Bank of England
For well diversified portfolios, the impact should be limited

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1q24 OUTLOOK: Turning the Corner

31/1/2024

In our upcoming quarterly investment outlook, we update our key themes for 2024. Please join Hoshang Daroga (Elston Consulting) and Natasha Sarkaria (BlackRock) for this webinar.

Our key themes are:
1. Growth: Steady as she slows
2. Rates: Perfecting the pivot
3. Inflation: Ensuring portfolio resilience

Our full Quarterly Investment Outlook is available to our clients.
Watch the Webinar

all eyes on the pivot

31/1/2024

Central Banks' policy rates are expected to pivot towards cuts in 2024 with a material impact on asset class perspectives.
Read the full article in FT Adviser

a year-end equity rally?

12/11/2023

Rate rises are on pause
Equities are over-sold
Short-covering has already taken place

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China's shaky shadow-banking sector

18/8/2023

[3 min read, open as pdf]

Shadow-banking sector accounts for 40% of China’s loans
Trusts offer better rates than national banks
Government trying to stave off a crisis of confidence

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can we trust the yield curve?

28/7/2023

[3 min read, open as pdf]

What is the yield curve?
Why might it invert?
What does this mean in our current circumstances?

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US DEBT CEILING CRISIS

19/5/2023

[1 min read, open as pdf]

Small, but concerning, chance that the US defaults on its debts
Debt ceiling is a cap on government borrowing
A US default would create a severe financial shock, so politicians on both sides should ensure its resolved in time

The full version of this article is available to our Clients.