Category: Macro

China's shaky shadow-banking sector

18/8/2023

[3 min read, open as pdf]

Shadow-banking sector accounts for 40% of China’s loans
Trusts offer better rates than national banks
Government trying to stave off a crisis of confidence

can we trust the yield curve?

28/7/2023

[3 min read, open as pdf]

What is the yield curve?
Why might it invert?
What does this mean in our current circumstances?

US DEBT CEILING CRISIS

19/5/2023

[1 min read, open as pdf]

Small, but concerning, chance that the US defaults on its debts
Debt ceiling is a cap on government borrowing
A US default would create a severe financial shock, so politicians on both sides should ensure its resolved in time

The full version of this article is available to our Clients.

Japanese equities look quietly compelling

5/5/2023

[3 min read, open as pdf]

Japanese equities entered the doldrums post-1989
Recovery has been slow but - since the financial crisis - sustained
The outlook for investors is promising

NAVIGATING SECTORS: TURBULENT FINANCIALS

30/3/2023

[5 min read, open as pdf]

Failure of SVB and Credit Suisse explored
Fears of systemic risk elevated
Reducing security-specific risk

Tracking the tremors

21/3/2023

[3 min read - open as pdf]

Banking sector problems are firm-specific
Higher rates and stickier inflation are biting
Financial conditions are tightening

SVB and US REGIONAL BANKS

14/3/2023

[5 min read, open as pdf]

SVB collapse triggers memories of the 2008 financial crisis
US Fed and government acts to restore faith in the banking system
Markets remain volatile but no indications of contagion

DRY JANUARY, STICKY INFLATION

24/2/2023

[5 min read, open as pdf]

January inflation numbers for the UK and the US diverge
Fed and BoE continue to be hawkish on rate path
Inflationary pressure remains sticky

FTSE past 8,000 reflects strong global sectors, not the UK economy

17/2/2023

[5 min read, open as pdf]

The FTSE 100, broke through 8,000 for the first time
This is good news for investors…
…but the index is less related to the UK economy

Bonds are getting interesting

3/2/2023

[5 min read, open as pdf]

2022 was a year of dislocation for Bonds
Rates are peaking and inflation is past-the-peak
This means Bonds are getting interesting once again

We explore this further in our CPD webinar: "Investing for Income".

inflation is getting stickier

20/1/2023

[5 min, open as pdf]

Inflation may be past the peak but not past the problem
UK Core inflation has not softened
Focus on where inflation rate will settle

For more on this topic see our CPD Webinar: Managing Inflation Risk (2023 update)

NMA PODCAST: INFLATION IS HERE TO STAY...

9/1/2023

NMA speaks to investment consultant Henry Cobbe about positioning equities for higher inflation using sector and factor equity investing.
Listen to the podcast

2023 OUTLOOK: LOOKING FOR LIGHT

16/12/2022

[5 min read]

Yield is back
Selectivity matters more
Inflation’s getting stickier

2022 proved to be a challenging year with pressure on equities and bonds a like in face of rising rates and soaring inflation. In our 2023 Outlook: Looking for Light, we explore three key themes
1. Yield is back: for equities, bonds and alternatives - the yield drought is over
2. Selectivity matters more: within and across asset classes
3. Inflation is getting stickier: getting past the peak, but still a problem

Read the summary article

Find out more:

The full version of our 2023 Outlook report is available to our clients. For UK advisers requesting further information, please contact us.
Watch the recent 2023 Outlook webinar discussion with Henry Cobbe, Hoshang Daroga (Elston) and Natasha Sarkaria, CAIA (BlackRock)

UK INFLATION UPDATE (NOV-22)

15/12/2022

UK inflation at 10.7%yy for Nov-22
This is lower than 10.9%yy survey estimate…
… and an decrease from 11.1%yy last month
Represents falling inflationary pressures

For full update including charts, open as PDF

US Inflation Update (Nov-22)

13/12/2022

US inflation at 7.1%yy for Nov-22
This is lower than the survey estimate…
… and a decrease from 7.7%yy last month
Represents lessening inflation pressures

For full update including charts, open as pdf

The Autumn Statement and what it means for outlook

21/11/2022

[5 min read, open as pdf]

Economic headwinds for the UK are considerable
The US is likely to recover faster than the UK and EU
Advisers should consider globally diversified approach

TIme to look at (short-dated) bonds again?

14/10/2022

[3 min read, open as pdf]

Bonds have been hammered by increases in policy rates
Unlikely that inflationary pressure will abate any time soon
Less sensitive short-dated bonds are just starting to catch the eye

Britannia: unchained or unhinged?

29/9/2022

[5 min, open as pdf]

Mini-budget’s fiscal restructuring dislocates sterling and gilts
BoE announces emergency debt purchases amid market turmoil
Positioning opportunities within UK equities

[Read the full article]

weakening pound: portfolio positioning

16/9/2022

[5 min read, open as pdf]

Pound Sterling hits lowest level since 1995
Driven by stronger dollar, and deteriorating UK economic outlook
Currency outlook affects decision-making across each asset class

The pound takes a pounding
The thirty-year anniversary of Black Wednesday was marked by the Sterling reaching its lowest levels against the dollar since 1985.
Part of this is a function of dollar strength against global currencies, another part about rising concerns on the UK economic outlook and future policy-making. Sterling’s weakness and outlook is forcing investors to consider how to manage currency risk in their portfolio across each asset class.
Full article available as pdf

Infrastructure in focus: building back better

16/9/2022

[3 min read, open as pdf]

Infrastructure spending to stimulate growth
Beyond the US, this is a global trend
Accessing the infrastructure beneficiaries

In this Insight we explore the increase in infrastructure spending and ways of accessing this exposure with index-tracking ETFs.

<<Previous

Insights.

China's shaky shadow-banking sector

can we trust the yield curve?

US DEBT CEILING CRISIS

Japanese equities look quietly compelling

NAVIGATING SECTORS: TURBULENT FINANCIALS

Tracking the tremors

SVB and US REGIONAL BANKS

DRY JANUARY, STICKY INFLATION

FTSE past 8,000 reflects strong global sectors, not the UK economy

Bonds are getting interesting

inflation is getting stickier

NMA PODCAST: INFLATION IS HERE TO STAY...

2023 OUTLOOK: LOOKING FOR LIGHT

UK INFLATION UPDATE (NOV-22)

US Inflation Update (Nov-22)

The Autumn Statement and what it means for outlook

TIme to look at (short-dated) bonds again?

Britannia: unchained or unhinged?

weakening pound: portfolio positioning

Infrastructure in focus: building back better

ELSTON RESEARCH

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