Our latest monthly commentary for investing in UK gilts for UK financial advisers.
Includes:
The “Mar-a-Lago Accord” is a concept, not an event. Some are advocating a new currency accord and debt restructuring to fix the US balance sheet.
Elston explores how advisers can buy UK gilts directly for their clients In this article and CPD webinar.
 The Bank of England, the UK's central bank, today cut rates by 25bp from 4.75% to 4.50% on weaker than expected economic growth. What is the market reaction?The market reaction is an increase in the FTSE 100 for two reasons: firstly lower borrowing costs are positive for corporate earnings, secondly Sterling has weakened on the news (reflecting the weaker economic growth outlook). Because FTSE 100 companies have predominantly USD-linked earnings, the translation effect makes the FTSE 100 look higher when Sterling weakens relative to the Dollar. What is the outlook for the UK economyWe focus on the three key macro drivers for the UK economy: Growth, Inflation and Rates. The Bank of England's central projections consistent with the MPC's forecast were changed as follows, relative to their November 2024 meeting: 2025 GDP Growth was downgraded from +1.50% to +0.75% 2025 CPI Inflation was upgraded from +2.75% to +3.50% The expected interest rate at the end of the three forecast period were increased from 3.50% to 4.00%. In summary this shows lower growth, higher inflation and higher terminal rates. (See chart) Might the Bank of England cut more?The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote was 7-2 in favour of a 25bp cut. Interestingly 2 voted to cut rates even deeper by 50bp to 4.25% to support economic growth SummaryAfter being slow to respond to the inflation shock in 2022, it now looks as though the Bank of England may have overtightened relative to growth and is now exposed to "stagflation risk". Stagflation is when the economy is caught in a lower growth and higher inflation trap. This will be a challenge for policymakers to navigate.
 Subscribe to our weekly newsletter to get all our insights to your inbox (for UK financial advisers only)
[5 min read, open as pdf] Macro factors: growth, inflation and rates
The three key macro drivers that impact markets are Growth (“G”), Inflation (“I”), and interest Rates (“R”) the policy rates set by the Central Bank. Every economic data release is relevant in as much as what it means for the direction of these three key macro drivers. Monitoring these macro factors The chart shows the recent evolution of these three macro factors for the UK. What about other macro factors? Other key macro factors that impact markets include Sovereign Risk (e.g. higher risk premia for Emerging Markets), Credit Risk (higher risk premia for lower quality debt) and Liquidity Risk (higher rewarded return for less liquid investments). Macro factors affect all asset classes Macro factors impact equities and bonds alike. Macro factors impact the risk premia (and hence return expectations) on different asset classes. As these premia shift, so do expected returns. For example, corporate bonds are impacted by interest rates premium, inflation risk premium and credit premium. Small cap equities are impacted by interest rate premium, inflation risk premium, growth premium and liquidity premium. Macro factors are inter-related Macro factors are inter-related. In the text books, when economic growth is strong inflation pressure builds. Interest rates are raised to contain inflation. When interest rates fall, that can stimulate growth. In reality, it can be more complicated (and has been). The relationship between macro factors is key, as a read of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee minutes will show. Why we believe in an adaptive approach A static-allocation “cruise-control” portfolio had worked well until the bond market dislocation of 2022 driven by the inflation and rate-hike shock. But as markets don’t stand still, nor should portfolios, in our view. We believe in an adaptive approach adaptive approach to navigate market risks, rather than leaving portfolios in cruise-control. This categorically does not mean trying to time the markets. What it does mean is trying to steer away from potential hazards along the way. Conclusion Keeping an eye on the key macro drivers is therefore key to asset allocation decision-making.  Subscribe to our weekly newsletter to get all our insights to your inbox (for UK financial advisers only)
[5 min read, open as pdf]
With rate cuts less likely, and zombie-inflation proving sticky, there are dual pressures on long-dated gilts. Whilst for some it might be satisfying to blame higher UK bond yields on Rachel Reeves, comparisons to the "Truss moment" are not entirely fair. There is a difference in my view. Here's why: Truss yield spike: fear that UK books not balancing, disregarding OBR, not showing workings - only UK yields affected. Idiosyncratic UK bond market risk. Conclusion? Politicians ignoring how markets work. Reeves yield spike: fear that US and UK books not balancing PLUS US/UK debt issuance indigestion. US & UK yields simultaneously affected. Idiosyncratic UK AND Systematic US/UK bond market risk. Conclusion? Markets ignoring what polticians say. The Reeves era of yield pressure is different from the Truss/ moment of her 2022 budget. But that doesn't help. A review of bond duration and how to mitigate the risk of zombie inflation is required to cope with bond indigestion.  [5 min read, read as pdf]
As we look forward to 2025, it is worth revisiting the themes and predictions of our 2024 outlook “turning the corner” to get a sense of what we anticipated at the time, how this informed our recommendations to UK adviser firms’ investment committees. Asset class performance for 2024 is summarised in the chart above. Our 2025 outlook is published separately. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter to get all our insights to your inbox (for UK financial advisers only) Steady as she slows In 2024, we anticipated a gradual deceleration in the U.S. economy, with markets pricing in the likelihood of a slight recession. In the event, the U.S. economy surprised on the upside. Growth forecasts were upgraded from 1.15% at the start of the year to an impressive 2.6% by year-end. This revision supported robust equity market returns and served as a reminder of the resilience of U.S. economic fundamentals. In summary, a resilient US economy defied expectations. What did we recommend to our clients at the outset and during the year? We took a balanced view between accepting concentration risk (traditional S&P 500) and diversified (active, sector exposures). We also recommended clients lean in to broader US equity corporate landscape via 1) Equal Weight and 2) US Small Caps exposures. By contrast, the UK had that shrinking feeling as regards economic growth, and although out of a technical recession, we are not confident of its prospects relative to the US. Pause before pivot At the close of 2023, we were focused on the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate hikes, noting that a rate cut was a question of when, not if. While the consensus view was that the first cut would be announced by mid-2024, we anticipated that the timing would hinge on the performance and strength of the U.S. economy. Indeed, the economy’s resilience delayed the start of what we anticipate to be a rate-cutting cycle to September 2024, when the Federal Reserve finally delivered a significant 50-basis-point cut. In fact, the eventual BoE Fed pivot came a month or two later than we had estimated at the start of the year, but we recommended our clients remain dynamic with regards to duration management. We recommended clients go strongly overweight duration in June as a good time to extend duration ahead of BoE cuts, with Fed following suit, and we saw the additional duration deliver returns on the bond side of the portfolio before attention shifted to debt supply and the UK budget later in the year, which led us to recommending to move back to neutral. The importance of portfolio resilience Our focus on resilience proved vital when it came to navigating the key macro factors in 2024: Growth, Inflation and Interest Rates. For Growth, anticipating a soft landing for the US economy, we highlighted the potential outperformance of cyclical sectors, and momentum, yield and size factors. In the event, momentum emerged as the best-performing factor, with yield and size also delivering strong returns. For Rates, we adjusted duration exposure mid-year to capture the effect of falling policy rates, aligning portfolios with a changing interest rate environment. For Inflation, which remained above target, the inclusion of liquid real assets (but to a lesser extent than in 2022) and shorter duration inflation-linked bonds, ensured continued portfolio resilience. We continue to emphasise the importance of a diversified alternatives exposure from a correlation perspective, not just in name. Our recommendation to consider Private Market Managers and Gold & Precious Metals paid off during the year – as these were the best performing asset classes for the year, outperforming world and US equities. Political and Geopolitical risks In a year of elections, we saw a change in government in the UK and in the US following Trump’s Presidential win. Both have a greater impact on bond yields and currency dynamics than equity markets, in our view. Geopolitical risks remain elevated with the Russia-Ukraine war continuing to grind, escalating conflict and contagion in the Middle East – all at tragic human cost. Conclusion Markets did indeed turn a corner in 2024, with economic growth, earnings and equity market returns outperforming expectations. With 2024 in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look ahead to 2025. Our 2025 outlook is published separately. Henry Cobbe, CFA Head of Research, Elston Consulting 
 [5 min read, open as pdf]
For someone aged 65 with average life expectancy a bond fund isn’t enough to ensure portfolio durability. Over that term the biggest risk is inflation risk and it’s harder for nominal bonds to keep pace with inflation. Inflation-linked bonds bring in high interest rate sensitivity (duration). Whilst higher yields now make for a more interesting entry point, there’s plenty of solid yield available in high quality low cost index bond funds.
But to navigate the changing outlook within the bond market a managed bond fund should also be considered as a one stop diversified managed bond portfolio. Most retirees will need a multi-asset retirement portfolio to last the course. Bonds alone are not enough. Read the quote in Trustnet  [5 min read, as pdf]
 Whether using bond funds or investing directly, bond investing requires thinking about the outlook for interest rates, inflation expectation, credit spreads and currency direction (if applicable) and how those variables impact bond valuations.
Read the article in FT Adviser  [5min read, open as pdf]
 [5 min read, open as pdf]
 Central Banks' policy rates are expected to pivot towards cuts in 2024 with a material impact on asset class perspectives.
Elston Consulting fund selector Jackie Qiao discusses how she sees active funds evolving over the next decade.
Read in full |
ELSTON RESEARCHinsights inform solutions Categories
All
Archives
April 2025
|
RSS Feed
|
Company
|
Our Solutions
|
|