Elston
  • WHO WE ARE
    • About
    • Contact
    • Events
    • Press
  • WHAT WE DO
    • Portfolio Solutions >
      • Our Portfolios
      • Custom Portfolios
      • Research Portfolios
    • Fund Solutions >
      • Our Funds
      • Custom Funds
    • Index Solutions >
      • Our indices
      • Custom Indices
    • SPECIALIST STRATEGIES >
      • Liquid Real Assets
      • UK Equity Income
      • Permanent Portfolio UK
      • All Weather Portfolio UK
      • Dynamic Risk Parity
      • Gold and Precious Metals
      • Enabling Net Zero
    • Research >
      • Investment Research
      • Regulatory Research
    • CPD
  • WHO WE HELP
    • Financial Advisers
    • Discretionary Managers
    • Asset Managers
    • Asset Owners
    • 中文
  • Insights

Insights.

UK economic outlook: growth cut, inflation raised on Brexit pain

23/11/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
  • Growth rates cut compared to pre-referendum estimates
  • Inflation estimates raised on weaker sterling, but possibly not far enough
  • Focused spending on infrastructure and innovation is welcome

Growth estimates cut
UK GDP’s growth rate has been downgraded relative to pre-referendum expectations, with a cut from 2.2% to 1.4% for 2017E and from 2.1% to 1.7% for 2018E.
Picture
Inflation estimates raised
Following post-referendum sterling weakness, estimates for UK inflation were increased from 1.6% to 2.3% for 2017E and from 2.0% to 2.5% for 2018E.  This compares to 2.4% and 2.8% for 2017E and 2018E respectively for UK swap breakeven rates.
Picture
​Rising interest rate environment
With higher inflation expectations there is upward pressure on Bank Rates after a protracted “lower for longer” regime.
Picture
Spending focus: infrastructure and innovation 
The government spending plans shows clearly defined cous – with budget to increase infrastructure spending from 0.8% of GDP today to 1.0-1.2% from 2020.  This supply side stimulus that focuses on productivity gains is welcome if fiscally manageable.



NOTICES: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.  I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it.
This article has been written for a US and UK audience.  Tickers are shown for corresponding and/or similar ETFs prefixed by the relevant exchange code, e.g. “NYSEARCA:” (NYSE Arca Exchange) for US readers; “LON:” (London Stock Exchange) for UK readers.  For research purposes/market commentary only, does not constitute an investment recommendation or advice, and should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.  This blog reflects the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of Elston Consulting, its clients or affiliates.  For information and disclaimers, please see www.elstonconsulting.co.uk 
Photo credit: www.gov.uk; Chart credit: OBR; Table credit: OBR Data, Bloomberg
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    ELSTON RESEARCH

    insights inform solutions

    Get our weekly newsletter

    Categories

    All
    All Weather Portfolio
    Alternative Assets
    Alternative Strategies
    Bonds
    Business Practice
    Equity Income
    Equity Sectors
    ESG
    ETFs
    Evidence-Based Investing
    Factor Investing
    Gold & Precious Metals
    Guide To Investing
    Index Investing
    Inflation
    Macro
    MULTI ASSET
    Multi Asset Income
    Net Zero
    Permanent Portfolio
    Portfolio Construction
    Private Markets
    Real Assets
    Retirement Investing
    Risk Parity
    Value Factor

    Archives

    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    September 2019
    June 2019
    April 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    July 2017
    May 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016

    RSS Feed

Company

Home
About
Terms of Use
​​​Contact
​
​Events
​
Press

Solutions

​​Insights
​​​Research Service
​Research Library
Portfolio Analytics
​Our Portfolios
Custom Portfolios
​Retirement Portfolio
Our Funds
Custom Funds
​Retirement Funds
Our Indices
​Custom Indices
Retirement Indices

Services

CIRP Development
Regulatory Research
​
​​CPD

By client type:
For Advisers
For Discretionary Managers
​For Asset Managers
For Asset Owners


© COPYRIGHT 2012-21. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • WHO WE ARE
    • About
    • Contact
    • Events
    • Press
  • WHAT WE DO
    • Portfolio Solutions >
      • Our Portfolios
      • Custom Portfolios
      • Research Portfolios
    • Fund Solutions >
      • Our Funds
      • Custom Funds
    • Index Solutions >
      • Our indices
      • Custom Indices
    • SPECIALIST STRATEGIES >
      • Liquid Real Assets
      • UK Equity Income
      • Permanent Portfolio UK
      • All Weather Portfolio UK
      • Dynamic Risk Parity
      • Gold and Precious Metals
      • Enabling Net Zero
    • Research >
      • Investment Research
      • Regulatory Research
    • CPD
  • WHO WE HELP
    • Financial Advisers
    • Discretionary Managers
    • Asset Managers
    • Asset Owners
    • 中文
  • Insights