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Following the post-COVID restart, there would necessarily be an inflationary spike, from base effects alone. Central Banks’ core thesis was that this spike would be “transitory”, rather than “persistent”.
However, the combination of pent-up demand, supply chain disruptions and an energy crisis suggests that inflation could prove more persistent than transitory.
We look at the numbers and how this informs the “big picture triangle” of three key macro factors: growth, inflation and interest rates.
Finally, we outlined potential interventions in portfolio positioning from an asset allocation perspective. Nominal bonds are known to be structurally challenged in an inflationary regime, and propose real asset exposure instead. Within equities, we would propose an income/value bias.
Regiser for our 3q21 Review & Outlook: The Big Squeeze