Inflation on the rise: time to rethink the 60/40 portfolio

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• How the 60/40 portfolio came to be
• In an inflationary environment, bond allocation will not preserve value in real terms
• Rethinking the “40” with a focus on risk budget

 
What is the 60/40 portfolio?
Trying to find the very first mention of a 60/40 portfolio is a challenge, but it links back to Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory and was for many years seen as close to the optimal allocation between [US] equities and [US] bonds.  Harry Markowitz himself when considering a “heuristic” rule of thumb talked of a 50/50 portfolio. But the notional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio has been a long-standing proxy for a balanced mandate, combining higher-risk-return growth assets with lower-risk-return income-generating assets.
What’s in a 60/40?
Obviously the nature of the equity and the nature of the bonds depend on the investor.  US investors look at 60% US equities/40% US treasuries.  Global investors might look at 60% Global Equities/40% Global Bonds.  For UK investors – and our Elston 60/40 GBP Index – we look at 60% predominantly Global Equities and 40% predominantly UK bonds
Why does it matter?
In the same way as a Global Equities index is a useful benchmark for a “do-nothing” stock picker, the 60/40 portfolio is a useful benchmark for a “do-nothing” multi-asset investor.
Multi-asset investors, with all their detailed decision making around asset allocation, risk management, hedging overlays and implementation options either do better than, or worse than this straightforward “do-nothing” approach of a regularly rebalanced 60/40 portfolio.
Indeed – its simplicity is part of its appeal that enables investors to access a simple multi-asset strategy at low cost.
 
The problem with bonds (the ‘40’) in an inflationary environment
Over the years, the relationship between asset classes has changed so much that the validity of 60/40 as a strategy can legitimately be questioned. 

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