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1. Yield is back: for equities, bonds and alternatives - the yield drought is over 2. Selectivity matters more: within and across asset classes 3. Inflation is getting stickier: getting past the peak, but still a problem Read the summary article Find out more:
UK inflation at 10.7%yy for Nov-22
This is lower than 10.9%yy survey estimate… … and an decrease from 11.1%yy last month Represents falling inflationary pressures For full update including charts, open as PDF US inflation at 7.1%yy for Nov-22
This is lower than the survey estimate… … and a decrease from 7.7%yy last month Represents lessening inflation pressures For full update including charts, open as pdf  [5 min read, open as pdf]
UK inflation at 11.1%yy for Oct-22
For full updates including charts, open as pdf US inflation at 7.7%yy for Oct-22
This is lower than the survey estimate… … and a decrease from 8.2%yy last month Represents lessening inflation pressures For full update including charts, open as pdf  [3 min read, open as pdf]
UK inflation at 10.1%yy for Sep-22
This is higher than 10.0%yy survey estimate… … and an increase from 9.9%yy last month For full update including charts, open as pdf  [3 min read - open as pdf]
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The thirty-year anniversary of Black Wednesday was marked by the Sterling reaching its lowest levels against the dollar since 1985. Part of this is a function of dollar strength against global currencies, another part about rising concerns on the UK economic outlook and future policy-making. Sterling’s weakness and outlook is forcing investors to consider how to manage currency risk in their portfolio across each asset class. Full article available as pdf [3 min read, open as pdf]
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With low growth, soaring inflation and spiking interest rates, advisers need to rethink the definition of risk. Focus on volatility is focus on the “wrong problem”. Instead, advisers should focus on preserving purchasing power (mitigate inflation risk) to protect client outcomes. That requires a fundamental rethink around traditional definitions of risk, asset allocation and diversification. For full article including charts, open as pdf  [3 min read, open as pdf]
Latest UK inflation figure The latest UK inflation came in at 10.1%yy for June 2022, compared to 9.3%yy survey estimate. This is up from 9.4%yy last month and is above expectations. This is the highest UK inflation rate in 40 years, and now in double digits. Food prices rose meaningfully, especially bakery products, dairy, meat and vegetables, and this was also reflected in higher takeaway-food prices. Inflation pressure has not yet peaked with Bank of England expecting 13% in 4q22 (from 11%) and a further step-up in the retail energy price cap. The BoE remains behind the curve, in our view. See full article including all charts  [3 min read, open as pdf]
Latest US inflation figures The latest US inflation came in at 8.5%yy for July 2022, lower than survey estimate. This is down from 40-year high of 9.1%yy last month and is lower than expectations of 8.7%. Gasoline prices fell by 7.7% in July, compared to an increase of 11.2%yy in June 2022. Food prices continued rising at a fast rate of 10.9%yy. Shelter cost moved higher by 0.5% from last month and went up by 5.7% from the same time last year. Read in full including charts  [3 min read, open as pdf]
On 4th August, the Bank of England raised rates by 0.5%, the largest single increase since 1995. This followed the US Federal Reserve raising rates by 0.75% at the end of July. While these rate rises may or may not bring inflation under control, the risk they pose to growth is considerable. We consider the ways in which investors can use ETFs to build defensive resilience as an alternative to low-yielding cash or bonds.  [3 min read, open as pdf]
What is the yield curve and how does it illustrate future expectations for the economy? In this article, we explain how to read the yield curve and discuss what the current version is suggesting in terms of inflation, interest rates and recession.  [3min read, open as pdf]
This is the highest UK inflation rate in 40 years. Higher prices for motor fuel and food explained the increase in prices |
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