The “Donroe doctrine” marks a new era. And a return to spheres of influence
On 4th December 2025, the Trump administration published its 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS).
The strategy envisages, accepts and even promotes return to great power diplomacy, realpolitik and spheres of influence. The NSS was controversial primarly for its criticism of European allies that made Vance’s 2025 Munich Security speech seem less like of an aberration and more of stated policy. The NSS is the stated intention of the Trump administration and actions will continue to follow policy. What does the NSS say?
We summarise its key points by region
Americas: a “Trump corollary to the Monroe doctrine,” also now known as the “Donroe doctrine,” means American primacy in the Western Hemisphere and cultivating alliances and economic ties to keep other powers out. (The original Monroe doctrine was articulated in 1823 to separate the New World order of the Americas in the Western Hemisphere, and the Old World of colonial European powers). Regional allies: the US wants regional allies such as Japan, South Korea and Europe to police their regions, with final, not first, recourse on the US. Europe: The document is scathing about European liberal elites and suggests that Europe risks "civilizational erasure". America is "sentimentally attached" to the European content and "of course, to Britain and Ireland" and the character of these countries is strategically important. It believes Europe should prioritise strategic stability with Russia, independent defence, "cultivating resistance" to the current ideological trajectory, opening markets to the US, and ending the "perception of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance". This will come as a shock to European policymakers. Russia-Ukraine: a potential pathway to peace in Ukraine would likely take some geopolitical uncertainty out of the system and reduce the level of risk that is currently priced into markets. China: the US focus is on China’s economic, technological (including AI) and military influence and ensuring it is contained. Unwinding China’s belt and road
The NSS has thinly veiled criticism of China’s belt and road initiative which has tied South American and Caribbean countries to China through loans, infrastructure, ports and trade.
China’s investment into the region to secure its own supply chains has not been a secret, but a very public initiatives since 2013 (with other investments made prior). What is surprising, is that it took so long for the US to respond to China’s encroachment into the US backyard. This is were global liberal free trade outlook clashes with geopolitical military and strategic posture. It was a faultline years in the meeting, and Trump is calling it out. Regime change and energy security
The Trump administration does not what energy rich, proximate countries like Venezuala to come under further Chinese or Russian economic or military influence. So it has taken action accordingly.
Venezuala’s oil is sovereign. The industry infrastructure was developed by US companies and nationalised by Carlos Perez on 1st January 1976. Trump sees himself as righting this “injustice”. The manner, style and legality with which Trump is implementing counternarcotics enforcement (drone strikes) and regime change (seizing, arresting and exfiltrating the current President Maduro) in Venezuala has appalled and surprised many. It also serves as a warning to all other leaders, state and non-state actors in the region as to what the hard edge of the published “Donroe doctrine” can look like. Comments are closed.
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