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Asset Allocation Research for UK Advisers

UK Gilts latest news April 2025

30/4/2025

 
UK yield curve
Our latest monthly commentary for investing in UK gilts. Includes latest gilts UK news.  Update on latest gilt yields.  Changes in Gilt yield curve. Gilts auction results.  Gilts ETF flows.  For UK financial advisers.

Investing in Gilts: key trends in the UK gilts market


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In our monthly commentary on the UK gilts market, we focus on three key aspects:
  1. The near-term direct gilts yields and “ladder” for maturities under 5 years
  2. Changes to the UK yield curve over all maturities and real yields
  3. Supply/demand and ETF flows

Near-term direct gilts ladder

The near-term direct gilts ladder shows the yield to maturity and coupon rates and is available to our clients.

For the 0.125% Treasury Gilt 30-Jan-26 (T26), Yield to Maturity was 3.150% at end April 2025, compared to 3.549% at end March 2025.
​
For UK advisers wanting the full gilts ladder including Gross Comparable Yield for higher and additional rate taxpayers, please contact us as this is only available to our clients.

Changes to the Yield Curve

The chart below shows changes to the UK yield curve over the last 3 and 12 months.
​
Over the past three months, the 10-year Gilts yield decreased from 4.54% to 4.44%, while the 2-year yield dropped from 4.22% to 3.80%.

The larger drop in 2 year yields suggests that investors expect near-term rate cuts from the Bank of England, driving short-term yields lower, while longer-term yields have dropped slightly on risk that inflation could remain higher for longer.

UK yield curve

UK yield curve

Real yields

We look at real 10 year yields which adjust 10 year nominal yield for (10 year) break-even inflation expectations as a measure of whether bonds are preserving capital on inflation-adjusted terms on a forward-looking basis.

The nominal yield on 10-year UK government bonds has risen significantly from near-zero levels in early 2021. As of end of April 2025, the 10-year gilt yield stood at 4.48%, down from 4.69% in March 2025.
​
This decline indicates growing uncertainty in the outlook for the UK economy. Yields peaked at 4.87% in January 2025, marking a three-year high. Real yields remain positive, meaning that after accounting for inflation expectations, investors continue to earn inflation-adjusted real returns on 10-year UK government bonds.

UK nominal vs real yields

Picture

DMO Auction Results

From a supply/demand perspective, the UK DMO completed the following auctions last month with Bid-to-Cover ratio of 2.58x to 3.48x.
​
Bid-to-Cover ratio higher than 2.5 indicates strong demand for Gilts. It means bids were 2.5 times the amount of bonds offered. This suggests investor confidence and successful auctions.
UK DMO Data
​From a flows perspective, UK Gilts ETF experienced cumulative YTD flows of £205m, concentrated in short-dated exposures.
London-listed Gilts ETF Flows (£m)

Summary

Near-term Direct Gilts are a tax-efficient alternative to cash deposits for higher and additional rate taxpayers.

Longer-dated gilt yields reflect the market’s view on the credibility of the UK governments borrowing and spending plans.

Notes

Yield at Average Accepted Price (AAP) is refers to the yield of an investment, calculated using the average price at which the investment was accepted, rather than the current market price. (Source: DMO)
​
Bid to Cover ratio is a key indicator of demand for government debt at auction, is calculated by dividing the total amount of bids received by the amount offered at a gilt auction. (Source: DMO)

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