navigating geopolitical risk - lessons from a spymaster

Reflections on a keynote address by Sir Richard Moore, Former Chief (‘C’) of the UK Secret Intelligence Service (2020–2025) (MI6) in conversation with Emma Walden at FundsForum Monaco 2026. ​

Investing in a Disordered World: Lessons from Geopolitics, Technology and Decision-Making

Investors today operate in a world that is increasingly shaped by geopolitics rather than economics alone. The assumptions that underpinned markets for much of the post-Cold War era - relatively stable international relations, predictable trade flows and established institutional frameworks - are being challenged by conflict, rivalry between major powers and rapid technological change. In this environment, understanding uncertainty has become as important as forecasting growth or inflation.

One useful way to think about geopolitical crises is through the lens of imperfect information. Decision-makers rarely possess complete knowledge, whether in government, intelligence or investment. The challenge is not simply gathering information but making decisions despite uncertainty. Markets often expect clear outcomes and linear narratives, yet geopolitical developments tend to unfold in complex and unpredictable ways. Investors therefore benefit from focusing less on precise predictions and more on understanding possible scenarios, risks and consequences.

The conflict involving Iran illustrates this challenge. While the political and military situation remains fluid, the broader economic implications are easier to identify. Strategic waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz remain critical to the global economy, giving regional actors leverage that extends far beyond their borders. Disruptions to energy supplies can ripple through inflation, transportation networks and industrial production. Similarly, interruptions to fertiliser supply chains can have delayed but significant effects on agricultural production and food security. Such shocks rarely affect all countries equally. Energy producers and nations with strong domestic resources may prove more resilient, while import-dependent economies can experience more immediate pressure on growth and living standards.

The war in Ukraine continues to demonstrate the long-term economic consequences of sustained conflict. Modern warfare increasingly combines traditional military power with technological innovation, particularly in areas such as drones, cyber capabilities and intelligence gathering. Economic endurance has become as important as battlefield success. Prolonged conflicts place growing strain on government finances, labour markets and productivity, raising questions about sustainability over time. For investors, the key lesson is that geopolitical events cannot be viewed as short-term disruptions alone. They often reshape industries, supply chains and national priorities for years.

A defining feature of the current era is the growing sense of global disorder. During previous periods of international tension, competing powers often operated within clearer frameworks and institutions that helped manage risk and reduce uncertainty. Today those structures appear less robust. As a result, governments, businesses and investors face a broader range of potential outcomes and must be more selective about where they focus their attention.

This environment rewards prioritisation. Organisations that attempt to respond equally to every headline risk can become distracted by short-term noise. Instead, successful decision-makers identify the issues most likely to shape the future and allocate resources accordingly. The same principle applies to investment portfolios. Not every development deserves a portfolio adjustment, but the most significant structural trends require sustained attention and analysis.

Technology sits at the centre of many of those trends. It has become a source of economic power, a competitive advantage and a strategic asset. Advances in artificial intelligence, data analytics and computing are transforming industries while simultaneously creating new vulnerabilities. The same technologies that enable better decision-making can also increase transparency, accelerate competition and expose weaknesses more rapidly than before.

Artificial intelligence in particular is increasingly viewed not as a future possibility but as a present reality. Like electricity or the internet before it, AI is becoming part of the infrastructure of modern economic life. Its influence extends beyond productivity gains and corporate earnings to national competitiveness, security and geopolitical influence. This has elevated technology from a sector-specific theme to a broader strategic consideration for investors.

The rise of technology also highlights the shifting relationship between governments and the private sector. Much of today's innovation originates from private companies rather than state-funded research programmes. This creates new forms of interdependence in which governments rely on commercial innovation while businesses operate within increasingly strategic and politically sensitive environments. Understanding this relationship may become a crucial component of long-term investment analysis.

Perhaps the most important lesson for investors, however, concerns decision-making itself. Perfect information is unattainable. Waiting indefinitely for certainty is rarely an option because inaction is itself a decision. The challenge is determining when the available evidence is sufficient to act.

One useful framework distinguishes between decisions that are easily reversible and those that are not. Reversible decisions can be made quickly because mistakes can be corrected. Irreversible decisions require greater caution, more information and deeper analysis because the consequences are harder to unwind. Applying this distinction can help investors allocate time and attention more effectively.

Equally important is organisational culture. In uncertain environments, success depends on the free flow of information, particularly negative information. Leaders who encourage honest discussion and constructive challenge create organisations that are better equipped to identify risks before they become crises. Whether in government, business or investment management, resilience often depends less on predicting every danger than on ensuring that people are willing to report problems when they emerge.
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The modern investment landscape is unlikely to become simpler. Geopolitical rivalry, technological disruption and economic uncertainty are set to remain defining features of the decade ahead. The most successful investors may not be those who predict every outcome correctly, but those who develop robust processes for navigating uncertainty, prioritising risks and making thoughtful decisions when complete information is unavailable. In a disordered world, adaptability may be the most valuable asset of all.