Elston Consulting in Citywire: Commodities, the 60/40 Challenge and the Iran Energy Crisis31/3/2026
 Elston Consulting's Henry Cobbe spoke to Citywire Wealth Manager, discussing Elston's early move into commodities and how it has helped clients navigate the Iran energy crisis. The article explores how Elston has challenged the traditional 60:40 portfolio model, the results that have followed, and what the company's strategy means for wealth managers operating in an increasingly unpredictable macro environment.
Read the full Citywire feature here 
When inflation is on the rise, nominal assets such as Cash and traditional Bonds (Gilts and Corporate Bonds), lose their real (inflation-adjusted) value.
The face value of the coupon they pay every 6 months, and the promise to repay the holder a face value of £100 in 10, 20 or 30 years time, looks increasingly less valuable than the paper its written on. Bonds and Cash cannot adjust for inflation. That’s why a £5 note buys you less than it did 10 or twenty years ago. 
By Henry Cobbe CFA, Head of Research at Elston Consulting.
Elston Consulting provides asset allocation insights and fund research to UK-based investment managers and financial advisers as support to their investment committees. For UK investment managers and financial advisers only In this article we explore the Iran conflict’s impact on the economy and the stock market. In a related article we explore why Trump started the war with Iran. 
By Henry Cobbe CFA, Head of Research at Elston Consulting
Elston Consulting provides asset allocation insights and fund research to UK-based investment managers and financial advisers as support to their investment committees. For UK investment managers and financial advisers only In this article we explore the geopolitical issues around the conflict. In a separate article we consider the impact on the economy and the stock market.
In this video, we explore how the recent Iran conflict is creating a new oil and energy shock — and what that means for the global economy and investment markets
In this video, we break down the rapidly evolving Iran–US conflict and explore how a major geopolitical shock has unfolded with far‑reaching consequences for global stability and financial markets.
How to ensure portfolio resilience
We explored this topic in our recent CPD webinar - within and across each asset class. But given recent geopolitical events, it makes sense to look under the bonnet of the VT Avastra Global Diversified Assets fund (which we consult to), to consider what alternative asset class exposures can act as the best shock-absorbers to 1) structural change from AI, 2) rising geopolitical tensions in the Gulf and 3) the debasement trade. For these, we turn to what we have named the "COGs" for a portfolio - Copper, Oil and Gold. 
The US broke off negotiations with Iran and together with Israel launched a series of massive strikes against Iran with the aim of decapitating the regime, neturalising air defences and naval assets, and laying the groundwork to enable a popular uprising against a degraded regime.
A bloody start to the year
The beginning of the year saw pro-regime change protestors being brutally and lethally crushed. Trump threatened Iran with intervention if the crackdown didn’t stop leading to an uneasy truce. 
Well it stopped the Europeans talking about Venezuala!
The Trump administration’s geostrategic focus on security for the Western hemisphere, dubbed the “Donroe” doctrine, can be simplified as keeping US interests up in the Americas and Russian/Chinese interests out.  Read Henry Cobbe’s view on where ETF asset raising will be strongest in 2026:
https://etfexpress.com/2026/01/11/chapter-2-geographical-split/
Equities have recovered strongly from the tariff shock earlier in the year. Dollar weakness vs Sterling has weighed on the relative performance of US equities; however, this was a step-change and there are concerns for Sterling too. Gold has continued to perform very strongly on the “debasement trade” and Central Bank buying. Within Bonds, Emerging Markets are in better shape than Developed Markets, in our view.
The “Donroe doctrine” marks a new era. And a return to spheres of influence
On 4th December 2025, the Trump administration published its 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS).
The strategy envisages, accepts and even promotes return to great power diplomacy, realpolitik and spheres of influence. The NSS was controversial primarly for its criticism of European allies that made Vance’s 2025 Munich Security speech seem less like of an aberration and more of stated policy. The NSS is the stated intention of the Trump administration and actions will continue to follow policy. 
Whilst there have been structural and trading shifts driving Dollar weakness, there is downside risk to Sterling too.
Where next for the UK economy? Hermione Taylor outlines the challenges at our Elston Investment Forum 2025.
Read on for more details. 
Where next for US trade policy, economy and markets ? We catch up with Greg Swenson on what's Trump doing and why.
Watch the presentation from Greg Swenson at our Elston Investment Forum 2025 Read on for more details. |
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